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The behaviour of US stock prices: Evidence from a threshold autoregressive model

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  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar

Abstract

This paper investigates the behaviour of US stock prices using an unrestricted two-regime threshold autoregressive (TAR) model with an autoregressive unit root. The TAR model is applied to monthly stock price (NYSE Common Stocks) data for the US for the period 1964:06 to 2003:04. Amongst our main results, we find that the US stock price is a nonlinear series that is characterized by a unit root process, consistent with the efficient market hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2006. "The behaviour of US stock prices: Evidence from a threshold autoregressive model," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 103-108.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:71:y:2006:i:2:p:103-108
    DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2005.11.016
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Yavuz, Nilgun Cil & Guris, Burak & Yilanci, Veli, 2007. "Searching threshold effects in the interest rate: An application to Turkey case," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 379(2), pages 621-627.
    2. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2008. "Non-stationarity and Non-linearity in Stock Prices: Evidence from the OECD Countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(11), pages 1-11.
    3. Maslyuk, Svetlana & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Non-linear unit root properties of crude oil production," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 109-118, January.
    4. Qian, Xi-Yuan & Song, Fu-Tie & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2008. "Nonlinear behaviour of the Chinese SSEC index with a unit root: Evidence from threshold unit root tests," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(2), pages 503-510.
    5. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:11:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil‐Alana & James C. Orlando, 2016. "Linkages Between the US and European Stock Markets: A Fractional Cointegration Approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 143-153, April.
    7. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lee, Jun-De, 2009. "Energy prices, multiple structural breaks, and efficient market hypothesis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(4), pages 466-479, April.
    8. Van Heerden, Dorathea & Rodrigues, Jose & Hockly, Dale & Lambert, Bongani & Taljard, Tjaart & Phiri, Andrew, 2013. "Efficient Market Hypothesis in South Africa: Evidence from a threshold autoregressive (TAR) model," MPRA Paper 50544, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Narayan, Seema & Rath, Badri Narayan & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2012. "Evidence of Wagner's law from Indian states," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1548-1557.
    10. Makin, Anthony J. & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2008. "Have US external imbalances been determined at home or abroad?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 520-531, May.
    11. Tülin Anlas & Cengiz Toraman, 2016. "Analysing the Efficiency of the Turkish Stock Market with Multiple Structural Breaks," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 6(12), pages 721-740, December.
    12. Cook, Steven, 2007. "A threshold cointegration test with increased power," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 73(6), pages 386-392.
    13. repec:spr:jeicoo:v:12:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11403-015-0157-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2008. "Do shocks to G7 stock prices have a permanent effect?," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 77(4), pages 369-373.
    15. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lee, Jun-De & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2010. "Stock prices and the efficient market hypothesis: Evidence from a panel stationary test with structural breaks," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 49-58, January.
    16. Quinton Morris & Gary Van vuuren & Paul Styger, 2009. "Further Evidence Of Long Memory In The South African Stock Market," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(1), pages 81-101, March.
    17. Gozbasi, Onur & Kucukkaplan, Ilhan & Nazlioglu, Saban, 2014. "Re-examining the Turkish stock market efficiency: Evidence from nonlinear unit root tests," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 381-384.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Threshold autoregressive model; Efficient market hypothesis;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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