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Are the Australian and New Zealand stock prices nonlinear with a unit root?

  • Paresh Kumar Narayan

Whether or not stock prices are characterized by a unit root has important implications for policy. For instance, by applying unit root tests one can deduce whether stock returns can be predicted from previous changes in prices. A finding of a unit root implies that stock returns cannot be predicted. This paper investigates whether or not stock prices for Australia and New Zealand can be characterized by a unit root process. An unrestricted two-regime threshold autoregressive model is used with an autoregressive unit root. Among the main results, it is found that the stock prices of both countries are nonlinear processes that are characterized by a unit root process, consistent with the efficient market hypothesis.

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File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840500217887
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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 37 (2005)
Issue (Month): 18 ()
Pages: 2161-2166

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:37:y:2005:i:18:p:2161-2166
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  1. Huntley Schaller & Simon Van Norden, 1997. "Regime switching in stock market returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 177-191.
  2. Kanas, Angelos, 2001. "Neural Network Linear Forecasts for Stock Returns," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 245-54, July.
  3. Bruce E. Hansen & Mehmet Caner, 1997. "Threshold Autoregressions with a Unit Root," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 381, Boston College Department of Economics.
  4. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2005. "Are OECD stock prices characterized by a random walk? Evidence from sequential trend break and panel data models," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(8), pages 547-556.
  5. Peter Huber, 1997. "Stock market returns in thin markets: evidence from the Vienna Stock Exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(5), pages 493-498.
  6. Xiaming Liu & Haiyan Song & Peter Romilly, 1997. "Are Chinese stock markets efficient? A cointegration and causality analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(8), pages 511-515.
  7. Qi, Min, 1999. "Nonlinear Predictability of Stock Returns Using Financial and Economic Variables," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(4), pages 419-29, October.
  8. Abhyankar, A & Copeland, L S & Wong, W, 1995. "Nonlinear Dynamics in Real-Time Equity Market Indices: Evidence from the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 864-80, July.
  9. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2004. "Is South Korea's stock market efficient?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(11), pages 707-710.
  10. Abhyankar, A & Copeland, L S & Wong, W, 1997. "Uncovering Nonlinear Structure in Real-Time Stock-Market Indexes: The S&P 500, the DAX, the Nikkei 225, and the FTSE-100," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, January.
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