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Modeling the drivers of urban land use changes in Lusaka, Zambia using multi-criteria evaluation: An analytic network process approach

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  • Simwanda, Matamyo
  • Murayama, Yuji
  • Ranagalage, Manjula

Abstract

Curbing the historically unplanned urban development in African cities crucially demands that the drivers of urban land use (urban-LU) changes are comprehended. However, this has become a complex decision problem for African urban planners and policy makers owing to the interconnections among urban-LU drivers and the complicated mixed development of planned and unplanned areas. Therefore, this study presents a new framework to model drivers of urban-LU changes in Lusaka, Zambia for the last 50 years using ground questionnaire surveys and the analytic network process (ANP). The study considers the growth of six urban-LUs, namely, unplanned high density residential (UHDR), unplanned low density residential (ULDR); planned medium-high density residential (PMHDR), planned low density residential (PLDR), commercial and industrial (CMI); and public institutions and service (PIS). The results revealed that socio-economic (55.11 %) and population (27.37 %) factors have been the major drivers of urban-LU changes while political factors (13.07 %) have also played a role. The role of biophysical factors (4.44 %) has been insignificant. The ANP model ranks UHDR (1st) and CMI (2nd) areas as the fastest-growing primarily driven by interactions amongst migration, economic opportunities, social services and land market. The growth of PMHDR, PIS and PLDR areas, ranked 3rd, 4th and 5th, respectively, has been largely driven by plans and policies and the political situation. The growth of ULDR areas is ranked (6th) as the lowest. The study discusses the urban planning and land use policy implications and suggests several strategies including strengthening of the local planning authority; improvement of the land tenure policies and delivery systems; establishment of satellite economic zones to decongest the city; investment in both green and blue infrastructure; and timely policy reviews.

Suggested Citation

  • Simwanda, Matamyo & Murayama, Yuji & Ranagalage, Manjula, 2020. "Modeling the drivers of urban land use changes in Lusaka, Zambia using multi-criteria evaluation: An analytic network process approach," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:92:y:2020:i:c:s0264837719315121
    DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.104441
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Engdawork Assefa, 2024. "Urban Land Use Trend and Drivers over the Last Three Decades in Addis Ababa and Impacts to the Sustainable Land Management," Journal of Sustainable Development, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 17(1), pages 119-119, January.
    2. Yuji Murayama & Matamyo Simwanda & Manjula Ranagalage, 2021. "Spatiotemporal Analysis of Urbanization Using GIS and Remote Sensing in Developing Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-5, March.
    3. Andrew Allan & Ali Soltani & Mohammad Hamed Abdi & Melika Zarei, 2022. "Driving Forces behind Land Use and Land Cover Change: A Systematic and Bibliometric Review," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-20, August.
    4. Cruz-Daraviña, Paola Andrea & Bocarejo Suescún, Juan Pablo, 2021. "Freight operations in city centers: A land use conflict in urban planning," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    5. Yashon O. Ouma & Boipuso Nkwae & Phillimon Odirile & Ditiro B. Moalafhi & George Anderson & Bhagabat Parida & Jiaguo Qi, 2024. "Land-Use Change Prediction in Dam Catchment Using Logistic Regression-CA, ANN-CA and Random Forest Regression and Implications for Sustainable Land–Water Nexus," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-30, February.
    6. Yang Wang & Chengchao Zuo & Mengke Zhu, 2024. "How Semi-Urbanisation Drives Expansion of Rural Construction Land in China: A Rural-Urban Interaction Perspective," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-17, January.
    7. Yiyi Hu & Yi He & Yanlin Li, 2022. "Urban Spatial Development Based on Multisource Data Analysis: A Case Study of Xianyang City’s Integration into Xi’an International Metropolis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-24, March.
    8. Wei Pan & Jing Wang & Zhi Lu & Yurui Li, 2023. "Swelling Cities? Detecting China’s Urban Land Transition Based on Time Series Data," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, January.
    9. N. M. Sabitha & Santosh G. Thampi & D. Sathish Kumar, 2023. "Application of a Distributed Hydrologic Model to Assess the Impact of Climate and Land-use Change on Surface Runoff from a Small Urbanizing Watershed," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2347-2368, May.

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