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JUE Insight: Were urban cowboys enough to control COVID-19? Local shelter-in-place orders and coronavirus case growth

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  • Dave, Dhaval
  • Friedson, Andrew
  • Matsuzawa, Kyutaro
  • Sabia, Joseph J.
  • Safford, Samuel

Abstract

One of the most common policy prescriptions to reduce the spread of COVID-19 has been to legally enforce social distancing through shelter-in-place orders (SIPOs). This study examines the role of localized urban SIPO policy in curbing COVID-19 cases. Specifically, we explore (i) the comparative effectiveness of county-level SIPOs in urbanized as compared to non-urbanized areas, (ii) the mechanisms through which SIPO adoption in urban counties yields COVID-related health benefits, and (iii) whether late adoption of a statewide SIPO yields health benefits beyond those achieved from early adopting counties. We exploit the unique laboratory of Texas, a state in which the early adoption of local SIPOs by densely populated counties covered almost two-thirds of the state's population prior to adoption of a statewide SIPO on April 2, 2020. Using an event study framework, we document that countywide SIPO adoption is associated with an 8 percent increase in the percent of residents who remain at home full-time and between a 13 to 19 percent decrease in foot-traffic at venues that may contribute to the spread of COVID-19 such as restaurants, bars, hotels, and entertainment venues. These social distancing effects are largest in urbanized and densely populated counties. Then, we find that in early adopting urban counties, COVID-19 case growth fell by 21 to 26 percentage points two-and-a-half weeks following adoption of a SIPO, a result robust to controls for county-level heterogeneity in COVID-19 outbreak timing, coronavirus testing, the age distribution, and political preferences. We find that approximately 90 percent of the curbed growth in COVID-19 cases in Texas came from the early adoption of SIPOs by urbanized counties, suggesting that the later statewide shelter-in-place mandate yielded relatively few health benefits.

Suggested Citation

  • Dave, Dhaval & Friedson, Andrew & Matsuzawa, Kyutaro & Sabia, Joseph J. & Safford, Samuel, 2022. "JUE Insight: Were urban cowboys enough to control COVID-19? Local shelter-in-place orders and coronavirus case growth," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juecon:v:127:y:2022:i:c:s0094119020300656
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jue.2020.103294
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Zihan Xu & Satoru Shimokawa, 2024. "Local restrictions, population movement, and spillovers during the pandemic: Evidence from Japan's restaurant restriction," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(9), pages 2105-2122, September.
    3. Deng, Yongheng & Meng, Lina & Zhou, Yinggang, 2022. "The effectiveness and costs of nonpharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 containment: A border discontinuous difference-in-difference approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    4. Virat Agrawal & Jonathan Cantor & Neeraj Sood & Christopher Whaley, 2023. "The impact of COVID‐19 shelter‐in‐place policy responses on excess mortality," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(11), pages 2499-2515, November.
    5. Alexander Ahammer & Martin Halla & Mario Lackner, 2023. "Mass gatherings contributed to early COVID‐19 mortality: Evidence from US sports," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(3), pages 471-488, July.
    6. Dhaval Dave & Andrew I. Friedson & Kyutaro Matsuzawa & Drew McNichols & Joseph J. Sabia, 2023. "Sudden lockdown repeals, social mobility, and COVID‐19: Evidence from a judicial natural experiment," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 20(2), pages 272-304, June.
    7. Glenn L. Furton, 2023. "The pox of politics: Troesken’s tradeoff reexamined," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 195(1), pages 169-191, April.
    8. Hilary Silver & Rebecca Morris, 2023. "Homelessness, Politics, and Policy: Predicting Spatial Variation in COVID-19 Cases and Deaths," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-13, February.

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