IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jpolmo/v30y2008i3p431-446.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The euro: Did the markets cheer or jeer?

Author

Listed:
  • Green, Christopher J.
  • Bai, Ye

Abstract

We examine if the introduction of the euro had significant and different effects on the stock markets of euro-zone countries, non-euro EU and accession countries, and non-EU countries. We argue that the introduction of the euro was equivalent to a market reform rather than an event whose impact was fully anticipated. Therefore, we use event study methods to examine the stock market responses to the introduction of the single currency in January 1999. We find significant cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) in euro and non-euro European stock markets, but not elsewhere. We investigated cross-sectional variations among countries by regressing the CARs on country inflation and interest rates, controlling for euro and non-euro membership. The results suggest that inflation and interest rates had a significant impact on cross-country variations in response to the euro, and that anti-inflation credibility was a central factor in these variations.

Suggested Citation

  • Green, Christopher J. & Bai, Ye, 2008. "The euro: Did the markets cheer or jeer?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 431-446.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:30:y:2008:i:3:p:431-446
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161-8938(08)00020-3
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Josef Lakonishok, Seymour Smidt, 1988. "Are Seasonal Anomalies Real? A Ninety-Year Perspective," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(4), pages 403-425.
    2. Richard Portes & Hélène Rey, 1998. "The emergence of the euro as an international currency," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 306-343.
    3. Hans Dewachter & Dirk Veestraeten, 1999. "Measuring Convergence Speed of Asset Prices Toward a Pre-Announced Target," Working Papers of Department of Economics, Leuven ces9902, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Economics, Leuven.
    4. Fölsz, Attila, 2003. "The monetary framework after accession a political economy analysis of ERM2," European Integration online Papers (EIoP), European Community Studies Association Austria (ECSA-A), vol. 7, March.
    5. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim & Lauterbach, Beni, 1997. "Market microstructure and securities values: Evidence from the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 365-390, September.
    6. Christopher Allsopp & Michael J. Artis, 2003. "The Assessment: EMU, Four Years On," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 19(1), pages 1-29.
    7. French, Kenneth R., 1980. "Stock returns and the weekend effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 55-69, March.
    8. Brown, Stephen J. & Warner, Jerold B., 1985. "Using daily stock returns : The case of event studies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-31, March.
    9. Morana, Claudio & Beltratti, Andrea, 2002. "The effects of the introduction of the euro on the volatility of European stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(10), pages 2047-2064, October.
    10. A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997. "Event Studies in Economics and Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-39, March.
    11. Karafiath, Imre, 1988. "Using Dummy Variables in the Event Methodology," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 23(3), pages 351-357, August.
    12. Alvaro Aguiar & Manuel M.F. Martins, 2005. "The Preferences of the Euro Area Monetary Policy‐maker," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(2), pages 221-250, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Grigaliuniene, Zana & Celov, Dmitrij & Hartwell, Christopher A., 2020. "The more the Merrier? The reaction of euro area stock markets to new members," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    2. Axel Grossmann & Emiliano Giudici & Marc Simpson, 2014. "Euro conversion and return dynamics of European financial markets: a frequency domain approach," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(1), pages 1-26, January.
    3. Bai, Ye & Chow, Darien Yan Pang, 2017. "Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect: An analysis of Chinese partial stock market liberalization impact on the local and foreign markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 182-203.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bai, Ye & Chow, Darien Yan Pang, 2017. "Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect: An analysis of Chinese partial stock market liberalization impact on the local and foreign markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 182-203.
    2. Silvio John Camilleri & Christopher J. Green, 2009. "The impact of the suspension of opening and closing call auctions: evidence from the National Stock Exchange of India," International Journal of Banking, Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(3), pages 257-284.
    3. Plastun, Alex & Sibande, Xolani & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "Rise and fall of calendar anomalies over a century," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 181-205.
    4. Plastun, Alex & Sibande, Xolani & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2020. "Price gap anomaly in the US stock market: The whole story," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    5. Nicolau, Juan Luis & Sharma, Abhinav, 2022. "A review of research into drivers of firm value through event studies in tourism and hospitality: Launching the Annals of Tourism Research curated collection on drivers of firm value through event stu," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    6. Ralf Schremper, 2003. "Kapitalmarktrelevanz deutscher Aktienrückkaufprogramme," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 55(6), pages 578-605, September.
    7. Silvio John Camilleri & Christopher J. Green, 2004. "The Impact of the Suspension of Opening and Closing Call," Finance 0411012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Ichev, Riste & Marinč, Matej, 2018. "Stock prices and geographic proximity of information: Evidence from the Ebola outbreak," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 153-166.
    9. Kalchev, Georgi, 2009. "Securities Litigation and Stock Returns: an Event Study," EconStor Conference Papers 148358, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    10. Maul, D. & Schiereck, D., 2017. "The bond event study methodology since 1974," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 80723, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    11. Pedro L. Angosto‐Fernández & Victoria Ferrández‐Serrano, 2022. "Independence day: Political risk and cross‐sectional determinants of firm exposure after the Catalan crisis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4318-4335, October.
    12. Fenech, Jean-Pierre & Skully, Michael & Xuguang, Han, 2014. "Franking credits and market reactions: Evidence from the Australian convertible security market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1-19.
    13. Carlo Rosa & Giovanni Verga, 2006. "The Impact of Central Bank Announcements on Asset Prices in Real Time: Testing the Efficiency of the Euribor Futures Market," CEP Discussion Papers dp0764, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    14. Nguyen, Tien-Trung & Wu, Yang-Che & Ke, Mei-Chu & Liao, Tung Liang, 2022. "Can direct government intervention save the stock market?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 271-284.
    15. Marcos Albuquerque Junior & José António Filipe & Paulo de Melo Jorge Neto & Cristiano da Silva, 2021. "The Study of Events Approach Applied to the Impact of Mergers and Acquisitions on the Performance of Consulting Engineering Companies," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-20, January.
    16. Nawal Seif Kassim & Roslily Ramlee & Salina Kassim, 2017. "Impact of Inclusion into and Exclusion from the Shariah Index on a Stock Price and Trading Volume: An Event Study Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 40-51.
    17. Andrew Coutts & Christos Kaplanidis & Jennifer Roberts, 2000. "Security price anomalies in an emerging market: the case of the Athens Stock Exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 561-571.
    18. Chia-Lin Chang & Shu-Han Hsu & Michael McAleer, 2018. "An Event Study Analysis of Political Events, Disasters, and Accidents for Chinese Tourists to Taiwan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-77, November.
    19. Luca Aguzzoni & Gregor Langus & Massimo Motta, 2013. "The Effect of EU Antitrust Investigations and Fines on a Firm's Valuation," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 290-338, June.
    20. Mr. Philip Barrett & Sophia Chen & Miss Mali Chivakul & Ms. Deniz O Igan, 2021. "Pricing Protest: The Response of Financial Markets to Social Unrest," IMF Working Papers 2021/079, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:30:y:2008:i:3:p:431-446. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.