Hybridizing logistic regression with product unit and RBF networks for accurate detection and prediction of banking crises
As the current crisis has painfully proved, the financial system plays a crucial role in economic development. Although the current crisis is being of an exceptional magnitude, financial crises are recurrent phenomena in modern financial systems. The literature offers several definitions of financial instability, but for our purposes we identity financial crisis with banking crisis as the most common example of financial instability. In this paper we introduce a novel model for detection and prediction of crises, based on the hybridization of a standard logistic regression with product unit (PU) neural networks and radial basis function (RBF) networks. These hybrid approaches are fully described in the paper, and applied to the detection and prediction of banking crises by using a large database of countries in the period 1981-1999. The proposed techniques are shown to perform better than other existing statistical and artificial intelligence methods in this problem.
Volume (Year): 38 (2010)
Issue (Month): 5 (October)
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- Barry Eichengreen and Carlos Arteta., 2000.
"Banking Crises in Emerging Markets: Presumptions and Evidence,"
Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers
C00-115, University of California at Berkeley.
- Eichengreen, Barry & Arteta, Carlos, 2000. "Banking Crises in Emerging Markets: Presumptions and Evidence," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt3pk9t1h2, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Barry Eichengreen & Carlos Arteta, 2001. "Banking Crises in Emerging Markets: Presumptions and Evidence," Macroeconomics 0012012, EconWPA.
- Domac, Ilker & Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad, 2003.
"Banking crises and exchange rate regimes: is there a link?,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 41-72, October.
- Domac, Ilker & Martinez-Peria, Maria Soledad, 2000. "Banking crises and exchange rate regimes - Is there a link?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2489, The World Bank.
- Fiordelisi, Franco & Molyneux, Phil, 2010.
"Total factor productivity and shareholder returns in banking,"
Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 241-253, October.
- Franco Fiordelisi & Phil Molyneux, 2010. "Total Factor Productivity and Shareholder Returns in Banking," Working Papers 10005, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
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