Bias correction of cross-validation criterion based on Kullback-Leibler information under a general condition
This paper deals with the bias correction of the cross-validation (CV) criterion to estimate the predictive Kullback-Leibler information. A bias-corrected CV criterion is proposed by replacing the ordinary maximum likelihood estimator with the maximizer of the adjusted log-likelihood function. The adjustment is just slight and simple, but the improvement of the bias is remarkable. The bias of the ordinary CV criterion is O(n-1), but that of the bias-corrected CV criterion is O(n-2). We verify that our criterion has smaller bias than the AIC, TIC, EIC and the ordinary CV criterion by numerical experiments.
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Volume (Year): 97 (2006)
Issue (Month): 9 (October)
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- Makio Ishiguro & Yosiyuki Sakamoto & Genshiro Kitagawa, 1997. "Bootstrapping Log Likelihood and EIC, an Extension of AIC," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 49(3), pages 411-434, September.
- White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
- Yasunori Fujikoshi & Takafumi Noguchi & Megu Ohtaki & Hirokazu Yanagihara, 2003. "Corrected versions of cross-validation criteria for selecting multivariate regression and growth curve models," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 55(3), pages 537-553, September.
- Yanagihara, Hirokazu, 2006. "Corrected version of AIC for selecting multivariate normal linear regression models in a general nonnormal case," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 97(5), pages 1070-1089, May.
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