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Prediction machines, insurance, and protection: An alternative perspective on AI’s role in production

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  • Agrawal, Ajay
  • Gans, Joshua S.
  • Goldfarb, Avi

Abstract

Recent advances in AI represent improvements in prediction. We examine how decision-making and risk management strategies change when prediction improves. The adoption of AI may cause substitution away from risk management activities used when rules are applied (rules require always taking the same action), instead allowing for decision-making (choosing actions based on the predicted state). We provide a formal model evaluating the impact of AI and how risk management, stakes, and interrelated tasks affect AI adoption. The broad conclusion is that AI adoption can be stymied by existing processes designed to address uncertainty. In particular, many processes are designed to enable coordinated decision-making among different organizational actors. AI can make coordination even more challenging. However, when the cost of changing such processes falls, then the returns from AI adoption increase.

Suggested Citation

  • Agrawal, Ajay & Gans, Joshua S. & Goldfarb, Avi, 2024. "Prediction machines, insurance, and protection: An alternative perspective on AI’s role in production," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:72:y:2024:i:c:s0889158324000030
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2024.101307
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2019. "Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 3-30, Spring.
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    4. Susan C. Athey & Kevin A. Bryan & Joshua S. Gans, 2020. "The Allocation of Decision Authority to Human and Artificial Intelligence," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 80-84, May.
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    7. Ajay Agrawal & Joshua Gans & Avi Goldfarb, 2018. "Prediction, Judgment, and Complexity: A Theory of Decision-Making and Artificial Intelligence," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, pages 89-110, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Morgan R. Frank & David Autor & James E. Bessen & Erik Brynjolfsson & Manuel Cebrian & David J. Deming & Maryann Feldman & Matthew Groh & José Lobo & Esteban Moro & Dashun Wang & Hyejin Youn & Iyad Ra, 2019. "Toward understanding the impact of artificial intelligence on labor," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 116(14), pages 6531-6539, April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Artificial intelligence; Prediction; Decisions; Rules; Insurance; Protection; Coordination;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D

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