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Decomposing producer price risk: a policy analysis tool with an application to northern Kenyan livestock markets

Listed author(s):
  • Barrett, Christopher B.
  • Luseno, Winnie K.

This paper introduces a simple method of price risk decomposition that determines the extent to which producer price risk is attributable to volatile inter-market margins, intra-day variation, intra-week (day of week) variation, or terminal market price variability. We apply the method to livestock markets in northern Kenya, a setting of dramatic price volatility where price stabilization is a live policy issue. In this particular application, we find that large, variable inter-market basis is the most important factor in explaining producer price risk in animals typically traded between markets. Local market conditions explain most price risk in other markets, in which traded animals rarely exit the region. Variability in terminal market prices accounts for relatively little price risk faced by pastoralists in the dry lands of northern Kenya although this is the focus of most present policy prescriptions under discussion. Producer price volatility concerns producers and governments in a wide range of industries and nations. In settings where producers have little or no access to financial markets through which they can effectively hedge against price risk, governments are often keen to find cost-effective means to reduce producer price volatility. Yet such volatility can arise from any of several sources, so identification of effective intervention strategies depends fundamentally on locating the source(s) of variability in producer prices. This paper introduces a simple method of price risk decomposition intended to serve as a policy analysis tool for precisely that purpose. This method determines the extent to which producer price risk is attributable to volatile inter-market margins, intra-day variation, intra-week (day of week) variation, or variability in terminal market price. We apply the method to livestock markets in northern Kenya, a setting of dramatic price volatility where price stabilization is a live policy issue. The remainder of the paper proceeds

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Food Policy.

Volume (Year): 29 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 (August)
Pages: 393-405

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:29:y:2004:i:4:p:393-405
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/foodpol

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  1. Barrett, Christopher B., 2002. "Food security and food assistance programs," Handbook of Agricultural Economics,in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 40, pages 2103-2190 Elsevier.
  2. Christopher B. Barrett & Francis Chabari & DeeVon Bailey & Peter D. Little & D. Layne Coppock, 2003. "Livestock Pricing in the Northern Kenyan Rangelands," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 12(2), pages 127-155, June.
  3. Fackler, Paul L. & Goodwin, Barry K., 2001. "Spatial price analysis," Handbook of Agricultural Economics,in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 17, pages 971-1024 Elsevier.
  4. Smith, Kevin & Barrett, Christopher B. & Box, Paul W., 2000. "Participatory Risk Mapping for Targeting Research and Assistance: With an Example from East African Pastoralists," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 1945-1959, November.
  5. Fafchamps, Marcel & Gavian, Sarah, 1997. "The Determinants of Livestock Prices in Niger," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 6(2), pages 255-295, July.
  6. C. Barrett & K. Smith & P. Box, 2001. "Not Necessarily In The Same Boat: Heterogeneous Risk Assessment Among East African Pastoralists," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(5), pages 1-30.
  7. John G. McPeak & Christopher B. Barrett, 2001. "Differential Risk Exposure and Stochastic Poverty Traps Among East African Pastoralists," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(3), pages 674-679.
  8. Christopher B. Barrett, 1996. "Market Analysis Methods: Are Our Enriched Toolkits Well Suited to Enlivened Markets?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(3), pages 825-829.
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