Currency crisis: Evolution of beliefs and policy experiments
We study a model of currency crisis where agents’ beliefs are the only source of volatility containing the potential for currency devaluation. Using the basic framework of Arifovic and Masson (2003), we simulate the model for a large number of parameter specifications. The learning dynamics of our agent-based computational model, based on imitation of successful expectational rules and occasional experimentation, result in recurrent currency crises. Recurrent crises are a robust feature of the dynamics regardless of the model's parameter specifications. We discuss both the impact of imitation and experimentation on the model's dynamics, as well as the impact of the parameter values on the duration of episodes of devaluation and periods of no-devaluation. In addition, we compare the first difference in interest rate spread statistics of the data generated in our simulations and real world data. Finally, we conduct policy experiments in our agent-based type environment designed to examine the power of the interest rate policy changes in decreasing the number as well as the duration of the episodes of currency crisis. Our results indicate that the policy of decreasing, rather than increasing, the emerging market interest rate proves more effective at reducing the likelihood of devaluation.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998.
"What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis?,"
Temi di discussione (Economic working papers)
343, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-373, October.
- Corsetti, G. & Pesenti, P. & Roubini, N., 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis?," Papers 343, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
- Lux, Thomas & Schornstein, Sascha, 2002.
"Genetic learning as an explanation of stylized facts of foreign exchange markets,"
Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies
2002,29, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Lux, Thomas & Schornstein, Sascha, 2005. "Genetic learning as an explanation of stylized facts of foreign exchange markets," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 169-196, February.
- Lux, Thomas & Schornstein, Sascha, 2003. "Genetic learning as an explanation of stylized facts of foreign exchange markets," Economics Working Papers |aEconomics working paper, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
- Jeanne, Olivier & Masson, Paul, 2000.
"Currency crises, sunspots and Markov-switching regimes,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 327-350, April.
- Jeanne, Olivier & Masson, Paul R, 1998. "Currency Crises, Sunspots and Markov-Switching Regimes," CEPR Discussion Papers 1990, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Arifovic, Jasmina, 1996. "The Behavior of the Exchange Rate in the Genetic Algorithm and Experimental Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 510-41, June.
- Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
- Arthur, W.B. & LeBaron, B. & Palmer, R., 1997.
"Time Series Properties of an Artificial Stock Market,"
9725, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- LeBaron, Blake & Arthur, W. Brian & Palmer, Richard, 1999. "Time series properties of an artificial stock market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1487-1516, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:82:y:2012:i:1:p:131-150. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.