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Detecting determinism using recurrence quantification analysis: Three test procedures

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  • Aparicio, Teresa
  • Pozo, Eduardo F.
  • Saura, Dulce

Abstract

In this paper we use the "Recurrence Quantification Analysis" proposed by Zbilut and Webber [Zbilut, J.P., Webber Jr., C.L., 1992. Embeddings and delays as derived from quantification of recurrence plots. Physics Letters A 171, 199-203] to develop three test procedures that allow us to detect general dependence and, from that, possible deterministic behavior underlying series. Based on the concept of "Percent of Determinism" we obtain three statistics that allow us to test for the null hypothesis of randomness. The results of the application of these procedures to a set of simulated and real series reveal good behavior in a wide variety of situations, including different sample sizes and series affected by noise.

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  • Aparicio, Teresa & Pozo, Eduardo F. & Saura, Dulce, 2008. "Detecting determinism using recurrence quantification analysis: Three test procedures," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 65(3-4), pages 768-787, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:65:y:2008:i:3-4:p:768-787
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Teresa Aparicio & Eduardo Pozo & Dulce Saura, 2002. "The nearest neighbour method as a test for detecting complex dynamics in financial series. An empirical application," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(7), pages 517-525.
    2. Jorge Belaire-Franch, & Dulce Contreras & Lorena Tordera-Lledo, 2002. "Assessing Non-Linear Structures in Real Exchange Rates Using Recurrence Plot Strategies," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 239, Society for Computational Economics.
    3. Strozzi, Fernanda & Zaldı́var, José-Manuel & Zbilut, Joseph P, 2002. "Application of nonlinear time series analysis techniques to high-frequency currency exchange data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 312(3), pages 520-538.
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    1. Aparicio Teresa & Pozo Eduardo F. & Saura Dulce, 2010. "Detecting Determinism Using Recurrence Quantification Analysis: A Solution to the Problem of Embedding," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    2. Zhang, Yali & Wang, Jun, 2019. "Linkage influence of energy market on financial market by multiscale complexity synchronization," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 516(C), pages 254-266.
    3. Saul Hazledine & Jongho Sun & Derin Wysham & J Allan Downie & Giles E D Oldroyd & Richard J Morris, 2009. "Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Nodulation Factor Induced Calcium Oscillations: Evidence for Deterministic Chaos?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 4(8), pages 1-10, August.
    4. Bastos, João A. & Caiado, Jorge, 2011. "Recurrence quantification analysis of global stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(7), pages 1315-1325.
    5. Teresa Aparicio & Dulce Saura, 2013. "Do Exchange Rate Series Present General Dependence? Some Results using Recurrence Quantification Analysis," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 5(10), pages 678-686.
    6. Aparicio Teresa & Pozo Eduardo F. & Saura Dulce, 2021. "A Strategy for the Use of the Cross Recurrence Quantification Analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(2), pages 1-14, April.

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