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The nearest neighbour method as a test for detecting complex dynamics in financial series. An empirical application


  • Teresa Aparicio
  • Eduardo Pozo
  • Dulce Saura


In this paper the nearest neighbour forecasting method is applied to five series taken from the US Stock Market, with the aim of testing whether these display some kind of chaotic dynamics. The main result of this analysis is that the hypothesis may indeed be accepted for all five series. Furthermore, this paper has tried to test the usefulness of the method in terms of the quality of the predictions, with the results obtained being satisfactory in all cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Teresa Aparicio & Eduardo Pozo & Dulce Saura, 2002. "The nearest neighbour method as a test for detecting complex dynamics in financial series. An empirical application," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(7), pages 517-525.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:12:y:2002:i:7:p:517-525 DOI: 10.1080/09603100010007986

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1988. "The Information in the Term Structure: Some Further Results," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 307-314, October-D.
    2. N. Gregory Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers, 1984. "Do Long-Term Interest Rates Overreact to Short-Term Interest Rates?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(1), pages 223-248.
    3. Jorion, Philippe & Mishkin, Frederic, 1991. "A multicountry comparison of term-structure forecasts at long horizons," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 59-80, March.
    4. Fama, Eugene F., 1976. "Forward rates as predictors of future spot rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 361-377, October.
    5. N. Gregory Mankiw & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1986. "The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(2), pages 211-228.
    6. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "The information in the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 509-528, December.
    7. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 1983. "Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 14(1), pages 173-224.
    8. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    9. Fama, Eugene F., 1990. "Term-structure forecasts of interest rates, inflation and real returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 59-76, January.
    10. Richard Deaves, 1996. "Forecasting Canadian Short-Term Interest Rates," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 615-634, August.
    11. Wahab, Mahmoud, 1997. "On risk, rationality and the predictive ability of European short-term adjusted yield spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 737-765, September.
    12. Fama, Eugene F & Bliss, Robert R, 1987. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 680-692, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aparicio, Teresa & Pozo, Eduardo F. & Saura, Dulce, 2008. "Detecting determinism using recurrence quantification analysis: Three test procedures," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 65(3-4), pages 768-787, March.
    2. Aparicio Teresa & Pozo Eduardo F. & Saura Dulce, 2010. "Detecting Determinism Using Recurrence Quantification Analysis: A Solution to the Problem of Embedding," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    3. Álvarez-Díaz, Marcos & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Gupta, Rangan, 2014. "Detecting predictable non-linear dynamics in Dow Jones Islamic Market and Dow Jones Industrial Average indices using nonparametric regressions," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 22-35.
    4. Arroyo, Javier & Maté, Carlos, 2009. "Forecasting histogram time series with k-nearest neighbours methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 192-207.

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