IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v37y2013i3p1040-1045.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Reject inference in consumer credit scoring with nonignorable missing data

Author

Listed:
  • Bücker, Michael
  • van Kampen, Maarten
  • Krämer, Walter

Abstract

We generalize an empirical likelihood approach to deal with missing data to a model of consumer credit scoring. An application to recent consumer credit data shows that our procedure yields parameter estimates which are significantly different (both statistically and economically) from the case where customers who were refused credit are ignored. This has obvious implications for commercial banks as it shows that refused customers should not be ignored when developing scorecards for the retail business. We also show that forecasts of defaults derived from the method proposed in this paper improve upon the standard ones when refused customers do not enter the estimation data set.

Suggested Citation

  • Bücker, Michael & van Kampen, Maarten & Krämer, Walter, 2013. "Reject inference in consumer credit scoring with nonignorable missing data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1040-1045.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:37:y:2013:i:3:p:1040-1045
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2012.11.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S037842661200341X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2012.11.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Feess Eberhard & Walzl Markus & Schieble Michael, 2011. "Why it Pays to Conceal: On the Optimal Timing of Acquiring Verifiable Information," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 100-123, February.
    2. Bücker, Michael & Krämer, Walter & Arnold, Matthias, 2012. "A Hausman test for non-ignorability," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 23-25.
    3. Walter Krämer, 2011. "The Cult of Statistical Significance – What Economists Should and Should Not Do to Make their Data Talk," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 131(3), pages 455-468.
    4. Marshall, Andrew & Tang, Leilei & Milne, Alistair, 2010. "Variable reduction, sample selection bias and bank retail credit scoring," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 501-512, June.
    5. Qin J. & Leung D. & Shao J., 2002. "Estimation With Survey Data Under Nonignorable Nonresponse or Informative Sampling," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 193-200, March.
    6. Jacobson, Tor & Roszbach, Kasper, 2003. "Bank lending policy, credit scoring and value-at-risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 615-633, April.
    7. Khandani, Amir E. & Kim, Adlar J. & Lo, Andrew W., 2010. "Consumer credit-risk models via machine-learning algorithms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2767-2787, November.
    8. Thomas, Lyn C., 2000. "A survey of credit and behavioural scoring: forecasting financial risk of lending to consumers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 149-172.
    9. Boyes, William J. & Hoffman, Dennis L. & Low, Stuart A., 1989. "An econometric analysis of the bank credit scoring problem," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 3-14, January.
    10. Blochlinger, Andreas & Leippold, Markus, 2006. "Economic benefit of powerful credit scoring," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 851-873, March.
    11. Crook, Jonathan & Banasik, John, 2004. "Does reject inference really improve the performance of application scoring models?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 857-874, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gero Szepannek, 2022. "An Overview on the Landscape of R Packages for Open Source Scorecard Modelling," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-33, March.
    2. Monir El Annas & Badreddine Benyacoub & Mohamed Ouzineb, 2023. "Semi-supervised adapted HMMs for P2P credit scoring systems with reject inference," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 149-169, March.
    3. Ha-Thu Nguyen, 2016. "Reject inference in application scorecards: evidence from France," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-10, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    4. Dong-Her Shih & Ting-Wei Wu & Po-Yuan Shih & Nai-An Lu & Ming-Hung Shih, 2022. "A Framework of Global Credit-Scoring Modeling Using Outlier Detection and Machine Learning in a P2P Lending Platform," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(13), pages 1-13, June.
    5. Rafael Weißbach & Dominik Wied, 2022. "Truncating the exponential with a uniform distribution," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 63(4), pages 1247-1270, August.
    6. Zhiyong Li & Xinyi Hu & Ke Li & Fanyin Zhou & Feng Shen, 2020. "Inferring the outcomes of rejected loans: an application of semisupervised clustering," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(2), pages 631-654, February.
    7. Ha Thu Nguyen, 2016. "Reject inference in application scorecards: evidence from France," Working Papers hal-04141601, HAL.
    8. Königstorfer, Florian & Thalmann, Stefan, 2020. "Applications of Artificial Intelligence in commercial banks – A research agenda for behavioral finance," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    9. Qiang Liu & Yingtao Luo & Shu Wu & Zhen Zhang & Xiangnan Yue & Hong Jin & Liang Wang, 2022. "RMT-Net: Reject-aware Multi-Task Network for Modeling Missing-not-at-random Data in Financial Credit Scoring," Papers 2206.00568, arXiv.org.
    10. Michael Bucker & Gero Szepannek & Alicja Gosiewska & Przemyslaw Biecek, 2020. "Transparency, Auditability and eXplainability of Machine Learning Models in Credit Scoring," Papers 2009.13384, arXiv.org.
    11. Rogelio A. Mancisidor & Michael Kampffmeyer & Kjersti Aas & Robert Jenssen, 2019. "Deep Generative Models for Reject Inference in Credit Scoring," Papers 1904.11376, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2021.
    12. Chen, Dangxing & Ye, Jiahui & Ye, Weicheng, 2023. "Interpretable selective learning in credit risk," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marshall, Andrew & Tang, Leilei & Milne, Alistair, 2010. "Variable reduction, sample selection bias and bank retail credit scoring," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 501-512, June.
    2. Rogelio A. Mancisidor & Michael Kampffmeyer & Kjersti Aas & Robert Jenssen, 2019. "Deep Generative Models for Reject Inference in Credit Scoring," Papers 1904.11376, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2021.
    3. Galema, Rients, 2020. "Credit rationing in P2P lending to SMEs: Do lender-borrower relationships matter?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    4. Ha-Thu Nguyen, 2016. "Reject inference in application scorecards: evidence from France," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-10, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    5. Y Kim & S Y Sohn, 2007. "Technology scoring model considering rejected applicants and effect of reject inference," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 58(10), pages 1341-1347, October.
    6. Ha Thu Nguyen, 2016. "Reject inference in application scorecards: evidence from France," Working Papers hal-04141601, HAL.
    7. Hussein A. Abdou & John Pointon, 2011. "Credit Scoring, Statistical Techniques And Evaluation Criteria: A Review Of The Literature," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(2-3), pages 59-88, April.
    8. Lobna Abid & Afif Masmoudi & Sonia Zouari-Ghorbel, 2018. "The Consumer Loan’s Payment Default Predictive Model: an Application of the Logistic Regression and the Discriminant Analysis in a Tunisian Commercial Bank," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 9(3), pages 948-962, September.
    9. Huseyin Ince & Bora Aktan, 2009. "A comparison of data mining techniques for credit scoring in banking: A managerial perspective," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 233-240, March.
    10. João Fernandes, 2005. "Corporate Credit Risk Modeling: Quantitative Rating System And Probability Of Default Estimation," Finance 0505013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Kiefer, Nicholas M. & Larson, C. Erik, 2006. "Specification and Informational Issues in Credit Scoring," Working Papers 06-11, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
    12. Lkhagvadorj Munkhdalai & Tsendsuren Munkhdalai & Oyun-Erdene Namsrai & Jong Yun Lee & Keun Ho Ryu, 2019. "An Empirical Comparison of Machine-Learning Methods on Bank Client Credit Assessments," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-23, January.
    13. Charitou, Andreas & Dionysiou, Dionysia & Lambertides, Neophytos & Trigeorgis, Lenos, 2013. "Alternative bankruptcy prediction models using option-pricing theory," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2329-2341.
    14. Butaru, Florentin & Chen, Qingqing & Clark, Brian & Das, Sanmay & Lo, Andrew W. & Siddique, Akhtar, 2016. "Risk and risk management in the credit card industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 218-239.
    15. Elisa Ughetto & Andrea Vezzulli, 2011. "What role can mutual guarantee consortia play for financing innovation? A firm-level study for Italy," International Journal of Banking, Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(4), pages 294-319.
    16. Ting Sun & Miklos A. Vasarhelyi, 2018. "Predicting credit card delinquencies: An application of deep neural networks," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 174-189, October.
    17. Kasper Roszbach, 2004. "Bank Lending Policy, Credit Scoring, and the Survival of Loans," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 946-958, November.
    18. Mocetti, Sauro & Viviano, Eliana, 2017. "Looking behind mortgage delinquencies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 53-63.
    19. Rais Ahmad Itoo & A. Selvarasu & José António Filipe, 2015. "Loan Products and Credit Scoring by Commercial Banks (India)," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 5(1), pages 851-851.
    20. Pulina, Manuela & Paba, Antonello, 2010. "A discrete choice approach to model credit card fraud," MPRA Paper 20019, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit scoring; Reject inference; Logistic regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:37:y:2013:i:3:p:1040-1045. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.