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Asymmetric dynamics of stock price continuation

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  • Huang, Alex YiHou

Abstract

This paper finds that the dynamics of stock price continuation are asymmetrical, in terms of both business cycles and past performances. During times of recession, stock returns are explained differently for past losers and winners; the level of credit quality dominates the return dynamics for extreme losers, while levels of information-based trading activity and information ambiguity contribute to winners’ medium-term returns. Such asymmetry is proposed as the source of insignificant profits achieved using conventional momentum strategies. On the other hand, in times of expansion, conventional asset pricing factors are found to affect stock returns with a dependence on the level of credit quality; this suggests that more profitable momentum strategies remain to be discovered.

Suggested Citation

  • Huang, Alex YiHou, 2012. "Asymmetric dynamics of stock price continuation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1839-1855.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:36:y:2012:i:6:p:1839-1855
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2012.02.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Nyberg, Henri, 2013. "Predicting bear and bull stock markets with dynamic binary time series models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3351-3363.
    2. Huang, Alex YiHou & Cheng, Chiao-Ming, 2013. "Information risk and credit contagion," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 116-123.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Momentum; Credit default swaps; Probability of informed trading;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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