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Integrated models of capital adequacy - Why banks are undercapitalised

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  • Kretzschmar, Gavin
  • McNeil, Alexander J.
  • Kirchner, Axel

Abstract

With the majority of large UK and many US banks collapsing or being forced to raise capital over the 2007-9 period, blaming bankers may be satisfying but is patently insufficient; Basel II and Federal oversight frameworks also deserve criticism. We propose that the current methodological void at the heart of Basel II, Pillar 2 is filled with the recommendation that banks develop fully-integrated models for economic capital that relate asset values to fundamental drivers of risk in the economy to capture systematic effects and inter-asset dependencies in a way that crude correlation assumptions do not. We implement a fully-integrated risk analysis based on the balance sheet of a composite European bank using an economic-scenario generation model calibrated to conditions at the end of 2007. Our results suggest that the more modular, correlation-based approaches to economic capital that currently dominate practice could have led to an undercapitalisation of banks, a result that is clearly of interest given subsequent events. The introduction of integrated economic-scenario-based models in future can improve capital adequacy, enhance Pillar 2's application and rejuvenate the relevance of the Basel regulatory framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Kretzschmar, Gavin & McNeil, Alexander J. & Kirchner, Axel, 2010. "Integrated models of capital adequacy - Why banks are undercapitalised," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2838-2850, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:12:p:2838-2850
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:ecmode:v:65:y:2017:i:c:p:67-74 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Hasan, Iftekhar & Siddique, Akhtar & Sun, Xian, 2015. "Monitoring the “invisible” hand of market discipline: Capital adequacy revisited," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 475-492.
    3. D. E. Allen & M. McAleer & R. J. Powell & A. K. Singh, 2016. "A capital adequacy buffer model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3), pages 175-179, February.
    4. McNeil, Alexander J. & Smith, Andrew D., 2012. "Multivariate stress scenarios and solvency," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 299-308.
    5. repec:spr:annopr:v:237:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-015-1789-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:eee:intfin:v:48:y:2017:i:c:p:135-145 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Guidara, Alaa & Lai, Van Son & Soumaré, Issouf & Tchana, Fulbert Tchana, 2013. "Banks’ capital buffer, risk and performance in the Canadian banking system: Impact of business cycles and regulatory changes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3373-3387.
    8. repec:asi:adprev:2017:p:100-119 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Bellini, Tiziano, 2013. "Integrated bank risk modeling: A bottom-up statistical framework," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 230(2), pages 385-398.
    10. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn, 2014. "The effect of financial market development on bank risk: evidence from Southeast Asian countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 249-260.

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