IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v23y1999i12p1793-1829.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Galton's Error and the under-representation of systematic risk

Author

Listed:
  • Los, Cornelis A.

Abstract

Our methodology of 'complete identification,' using simple algebraic geometry, throws new light on the continued commitment of Galton's Error in finance and the resulting misinformation of investors. Mutual funds conventionally advertise their relative systematic market risk, or 'betas,' to potential investors based on incomplete measurement by unidirectional bivariate projections: they commit Galton's Error by under-representing their systematic risk. Consequently, far too many mutual funds are marketed as 'defensive' and too few as 'aggressive.' Using our new methodology we found that, out of a total of 3,217 mutual funds, 2,047 funds (63.7%) claimed to be defensive based on the current industry standard methodology, but only 608 (18.9%) actually are. This under-representation of systematic risk leads to inefficiencies in the capital allocation process, since biased betas lead to mis-pricing of mutual funds. Our complete bivariate projection produces a correct representation of the epistemic uncertainty inherent in the bivariate measurement of relative market risk. Our conclusions have also serious consequences for the proper 'bench-marking' and recent regulatory proposals for the mutual funds industry.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Los, Cornelis A., 1999. "Galton's Error and the under-representation of systematic risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(12), pages 1793-1829, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:23:y:1999:i:12:p:1793-1829
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378-4266(99)00038-2
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Klepper, Steven & Leamer, Edward E, 1984. "Consistent Sets of Estimates for Regressions with Errors in All Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(1), pages 163-183, January.
    2. Stephen A. Ross, 2013. "The Arbitrage Theory of Capital Asset Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 1, pages 11-30, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Cornelis A. Los, 1986. "Collinearity analysis of a simple money demand equation," Research Paper 8604, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. Los, Cornelis A., 1998. "Optimal multi-currency investment strategies with exact attribution in three Asian countries," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 8(2-3), pages 169-198, September.
    5. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    6. Bekker, P. & Kapteyn, A.J. & Wansbeek, T.J., 1984. "Measurement error and endogeneity in regression : Bounds for ML and IV-estimates," Other publications TiSEM 80b5811e-c9b0-4e05-b5fe-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Chichilnisky, Graciela, 1996. "Markets with endogenous uncertainty: theory and policy," MPRA Paper 8612, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Altman, Edward I. & Haldeman, Robert G. & Narayanan, P., 1977. "ZETATM analysis A new model to identify bankruptcy risk of corporations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 29-54, June.
    9. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    10. Gary S. Becker, 1981. "A Treatise on the Family," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number beck81-1, March.
    11. William F. Sharpe, 1963. "A Simplified Model for Portfolio Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(2), pages 277-293, January.
    12. Magnus, J.R. & Morgan, M.S., 1995. "An experiment in applied econometrics," Other publications TiSEM a61c0907-aba4-4d79-9b0e-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    13. Cornelis A. Los, 1991. "A Scientific View of Economic Data Analysis: Reply," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 526-531, Oct-Dec.
    14. Cornelis A. Los, 1991. "A Scientific View of Economic Data Analysis," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 61-71, Jan-Mar.
    15. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    16. Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The World Price of Covariance Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 111-157, March.
    17. Zimmerman, David J, 1992. "Regression toward Mediocrity in Economic Stature," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 409-429, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Los, Cornelis A., 2006. "System identification in noisy data environments: An application to six Asian stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1997-2024, July.
    2. Los, Cornelis A. & Tungsong, Satjaporn, 2008. "Investment Model Uncertainty and Fair Pricing," MPRA Paper 8859, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Cornelis A. Los, 2005. "Were Cobb and Douglas Prejudiced? A Critical Re-analysis of their 1928 Production Model Identification," Econometrics 0502013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Cornelis A Los, 2004. "The Unscientific Incompleteness and Bias of Unidirectional Projections (= Regressions): A Questionnaire," Econometrics 0410011, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Cornelis A. Los, 2004. "Model Uncertainty, Complexity and Rank in Finance," Econometrics 0411013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Cornelis Los, 2004. "Measuring the Degree of Efficiency of Financial Market," Finance 0411003, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, August.
    2. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Eficiencia De Mercado, Administracion De Carteras De Fondos Y Behavioural Finance," Finance 0503028, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2005.
    3. Andrei Salem Gonçalves & Robert Aldo Iquiapaza & Aureliano Angel Bressan, 2012. "Latent Fundamentals Arbitrage with a Mixed Effects Factor Model," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 10(3), pages 317-335.
    4. Zura Kakushadze, 2015. "Heterotic Risk Models," Papers 1508.04883, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2016.
    5. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2016. "Statistical Risk Models," Papers 1602.08070, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2017.
    6. Zura Kakushadze & Willie Yu, 2016. "Multifactor Risk Models and Heterotic CAPM," Papers 1602.04902, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2016.
    7. Frankfurter, George M. & Phillips, Herbert E., 1996. "Normative implications of equilibrium models: Homogeneous expectations and other artificialities," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 67-83, October.
    8. Los, Cornelis A. & Tungsong, Satjaporn, 2008. "Investment Model Uncertainty and Fair Pricing," MPRA Paper 8859, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Dimson, Elroy & Mussavian, Massoud, 1999. "Three centuries of asset pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(12), pages 1745-1769, December.
    10. Martin Gold, 2010. "Fiduciary Finance," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13813.
    11. Alfred Mbairadjim Moussa & Jules Sadefo Kamdem, 2022. "A fuzzy multifactor asset pricing model," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 1221-1241, June.
    12. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Zakaria, Muhammad & Raza, Naveed, 2014. "Sensitivity Analysis of CAPM Estimates: Data Frequency and Time Frame," MPRA Paper 60110, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. T.J. Flavin & M.R. Wickens, 2003. "Macroeconomic influences on optimal asset allocation," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(2), pages 207-231.
    14. Ferson, Wayne E. & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Fundamental determinants of national equity market returns: A perspective on conditional asset pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(11-12), pages 1625-1665, December.
    15. Uddin, Ajim & Yu, Dantong, 2020. "Latent factor model for asset pricing," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    16. Campbell R. Harvey & Bruno Solnik & Guofu Zhou, 2002. "What Determines Expected International Asset Returns?," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 3(2), pages 249-298, November.
    17. Rua, António & Nunes, Luis C., 2012. "A wavelet-based assessment of market risk: The emerging markets case," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 84-92.
    18. Jovanovic, Franck & Schinckus, Christophe, 2017. "Econophysics and Financial Economics: An Emerging Dialogue," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190205034, Decembrie.
    19. Andreas Ziegler & Michael Schröder & Anja Schulz & Richard Stehle, 2007. "Multifaktormodelle zur Erklärung deutscher Aktienrenditen: Eine empirische Analyse," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 355-389, May.
    20. Wang, Zhi, 2000. "Production-based asset pricing: a cross-industry study," ISU General Staff Papers 2000010108000013294, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:23:y:1999:i:12:p:1793-1829. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.