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Multifaktormodelle zur Erklärung deutscher Aktienrenditen: eine empirische Analyse

Listed author(s):
  • Stehle, Richard
  • Schulz, Anja
  • Schröder, Michael
  • Eberts, Elke
  • Ziegler, Andreas

Dieses Papier untersucht, inwieweit Multifaktormodelle nach Fama/French (1993) am deutschen Aktienmarkt die zeitliche Streuung von Renditen abbilden und Portfolio-Renditen im Querschnitt erklären können. Analog zu vergleichbar angelegten Studien am US-amerikanischen, kanadischen und britischen Aktienmarkt ergibt sich aus den linearen Zeitreihen- Regressionen, dass ein Dreifaktorenmodell, das neben der Überschussrendite des Aktienmarktes zwei weitere Risikofaktoren des Aktienmarktes enthält (die sich aus dem Marktwert sowie dem Quotienten aus Buch- und Marktwert ableiten), eine wesentlich höhere Erklärungskraft für die Überschussrendite von Aktienportfolios besitzt als das traditionelle Capital Asset Pricing Model. Dagegen weisen zwei Risikofaktoren des Anleihenmarktes (die sich aus der Zinsstruktur und dem Ausfallrisiko ableiten) in einem Fünffaktorenmodell keinen zusätzlichen Erklärungsgehalt auf. Gegenüber den USA und Kanada kann das Dreifaktorenmodell allerdings für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland die zeitliche Streuung von Aktienrenditen nur schlechter abbilden. Dagegen werden Portfolio-Renditen im Querschnitt am deutschen Aktienmarkt wesentlich besser erklärt als am US-amerikanischen Aktienmarkt.

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Paper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 03-45.

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Date of creation: 2003
Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:1354
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  1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
  2. Michael Berkowitz, 2001. "Common Risk Factors in Explaining Canadian Equity Returns," Working Papers berk-00-01, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  3. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1995. " Size and Book-to-Market Factors in Earnings and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 131-155, March.
  4. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. " Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
  5. Daniel, Kent & Titman, Sheridan, 1997. " Evidence on the Characteristics of Cross Sectional Variation in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 1-33, March.
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