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Multifaktormodelle zur Erklärung deutscher Aktienrenditen: eine empirische Analyse

Author

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  • Stehle, Richard
  • Schulz, Anja
  • Schröder, Michael
  • Eberts, Elke
  • Ziegler, Andreas

Abstract

Dieses Papier untersucht, inwieweit Multifaktormodelle nach Fama/French (1993) am deutschen Aktienmarkt die zeitliche Streuung von Renditen abbilden und Portfolio-Renditen im Querschnitt erklären können. Analog zu vergleichbar angelegten Studien am US-amerikanischen, kanadischen und britischen Aktienmarkt ergibt sich aus den linearen Zeitreihen- Regressionen, dass ein Dreifaktorenmodell, das neben der Überschussrendite des Aktienmarktes zwei weitere Risikofaktoren des Aktienmarktes enthält (die sich aus dem Marktwert sowie dem Quotienten aus Buch- und Marktwert ableiten), eine wesentlich höhere Erklärungskraft für die Überschussrendite von Aktienportfolios besitzt als das traditionelle Capital Asset Pricing Model. Dagegen weisen zwei Risikofaktoren des Anleihenmarktes (die sich aus der Zinsstruktur und dem Ausfallrisiko ableiten) in einem Fünffaktorenmodell keinen zusätzlichen Erklärungsgehalt auf. Gegenüber den USA und Kanada kann das Dreifaktorenmodell allerdings für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland die zeitliche Streuung von Aktienrenditen nur schlechter abbilden. Dagegen werden Portfolio-Renditen im Querschnitt am deutschen Aktienmarkt wesentlich besser erklärt als am US-amerikanischen Aktienmarkt.

Suggested Citation

  • Stehle, Richard & Schulz, Anja & Schröder, Michael & Eberts, Elke & Ziegler, Andreas, 2003. "Multifaktormodelle zur Erklärung deutscher Aktienrenditen: eine empirische Analyse," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-45, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:1354
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    Cited by:

    1. Oberndorfer Ulrich & Ziegler Andreas, 2009. "2002 German Federal Elections and Associated Energy Policy: How Were Energy Corporations Financially Affected?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 229(5), pages 570-583, October.
    2. Wallmeier, Martin & Tauscher, Kathrin, 2012. "A Note on the Impact of Portfolio Overlapping in Tests of the Fama and French Three-Factor Model," FSES Working Papers 433, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland.
    3. Schäffner, Daniel, 2007. "Bestimmung des Ausgangsniveaus der Kosten und des kalkulatorischen Eigenkapitalzinssatzes für eine Anreizregulierung des Energiesektors," WIK Discussion Papers 293, WIK Wissenschaftliches Institut für Infrastruktur und Kommunikationsdienste GmbH.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Multifaktormodelle; CAPM; Aktienrenditen;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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