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The impact of the EU–US Open Skies agreement on international travel and carbon dioxide emissions

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  • Mayor, Karen
  • Tol, Richard S.J.

Abstract

We use a model of domestic and international tourist numbers and flows to estimate the impact of the EU–US Open Skies agreement that is to take effect in March 2008. The Open Aviation Area will result in increased competition between transatlantic carriers and consequently falls in the cost of flights, therefore we look at the change in visitor numbers from the US into the EU and corresponding CO2 emissions. We find that passenger numbers arriving from the US into the EU will increase by approximately 1% and 14% depending on the magnitude of the price reductions. This increase in passenger numbers does not, however, result in a corresponding rise in emissions as arrivals into other countries from the US fall by a comparable amount. The number of tourist arrivals from the US to countries outside of the EU will fall and overall emissions would then increase by a maximum of 0.7%. If we assume that domestic holidays and foreign holidays are close substitutes, these effects are strengthened and US passengers switch from domestic trips to foreign destinations as airfares converge.

Suggested Citation

  • Mayor, Karen & Tol, Richard S.J., 2008. "The impact of the EU–US Open Skies agreement on international travel and carbon dioxide emissions," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-7.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:14:y:2008:i:1:p:1-7
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2007.07.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Button, Kenneth & Taylor, Samantha, 2000. "International air transportation and economic development," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 209-222.
    2. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & David J. Maddison & Richard S.J. Tol, 2003. "Climate Change And International Tourism: A Simulation Study," Working Papers FNU-31, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2003.
    3. Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Impact of a Carbon Tax on International Tourism," Papers WP177, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    4. Njegovan, Nenad, 2006. "Elasticities of demand for leisure air travel: A system modelling approach," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 33-39.
    5. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & David J. Maddison & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "The Effects Of Climate Change On International Tourism," Working Papers FNU-36, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2004.
    6. Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "The Impact Of Climate Change On Domestic And International Tourism: A Simulation Study," Working Papers FNU-58, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2005.
    7. Wohlgemuth, Norbert, 1997. "World transport energy demand modelling : Methodology and elasticities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(14-15), pages 1109-1119, December.
    8. Tae H. Oum & Waters, W.G. & Jong Say Yong, 1990. "A survey of recent estimates of price elasticities of demand for transport," Policy Research Working Paper Series 359, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Karen Mayor & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "European Climate Policy and Aviation Emissions," Papers WP241, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    2. Karen Mayor & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "Aviation and the Environment in the Context of the EU-US Open Skies Agreement," Papers WP240, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    3. Mayor, Karen & Tol, Richard S.J., 2009. "Aviation and the environment in the context of the EU–US Open Skies agreement," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 90-95.
    4. Tsai, Wen-Hsien & Chang, Yao-Chung & Lin, Sin-Jin & Chen, Hui-Chiao & Chu, Po-Yuan, 2014. "A green approach to the weight reduction of aircraft cabins," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 65-77.
    5. Karen Mayor & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "Scenarios of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Aviation," Papers WP244, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    6. Zhang, Shengrun & Derudder, Ben & Fuellhart, Kurt & Witlox, Frank, 2018. "Carriers’ entry patterns under EU-US open skies agreement," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 101-112.
    7. Wen-Hsien Tsai & Shang-Yu Lai, 2018. "Green Production Planning and Control Model with ABC under Industry 4.0 for the Paper Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-29, August.

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