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Aviation and the Environment in the Context of the EU-US Open Skies Agreement

Author

Listed:
  • Karen Mayor

    (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI))

  • Richard S. J. Tol

    (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI))

Abstract

We examine the impacts of the EU-US Open Skies agreement on the environment, in particular looking at the effect of the agreement on emissions from the aviation sector. We use the Hamburg Tourism Model, a model of domestic and international tourist numbers and flows, to estimate these impacts. The Open Aviation Area will result in increased competition between carriers and consequently falls in the cost of transatlantic flights. This will not only have implications for the size and structure of the industry but also for climate policy. The objectives of this paper are (1) to assess what effects the expected increases in passenger numbers will have on CO2 emissions and (2) to test whether this increase in travel will result in a corresponding rise in emissions. Model simulations show that passenger numbers arriving from the US to the EU will increase by between 1% and 14% depending on the magnitude of the price reductions. We find that because of substitution between destinations, the percentage increase in global emissions is much smaller (max. 1%) than the increase in cross-Atlantic traffic. In the current context of greenhouse gas control policies, any increase in emissions will make climate policy objectives more difficult to achieve and will attract more attention to aviation's contribution to climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Karen Mayor & Richard S. J. Tol, 2008. "Aviation and the Environment in the Context of the EU-US Open Skies Agreement," Papers WP240, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp240
    as

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    File URL: http://www.esri.ie/pubs/WP240.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2008
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Button, Kenneth & Taylor, Samantha, 2000. "International air transportation and economic development," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 209-222.
    2. Mayor, Karen & Tol, Richard S.J., 2007. "The impact of the UK aviation tax on carbon dioxide emissions and visitor numbers," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 507-513, November.
    3. Jacqueline M. Hamilton & David J. Maddison & Richard S.J. Tol, 2003. "Climate Change And International Tourism: A Simulation Study," Working Papers FNU-31, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Sep 2003.
    4. Schipper, Youdi, 2004. "Environmental costs in European aviation," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 141-154, April.
    5. Karen Mayor & Richard S.J. Tol, 2007. "The Impact of the EU-US Open Skies Agreement on International Travel and Carbon Dioxide Emissions," Papers WP191, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    6. Wohlgemuth, Norbert, 1997. "World transport energy demand modelling : Methodology and elasticities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(14-15), pages 1109-1119, December.
    7. Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Impact Of A Carbon Tax On International Tourism," Working Papers FNU-120, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Nov 2006.
    8. Schipper, Youdi & Rietveld, Piet & Nijkamp, Peter, 2001. "Environmental externalities in air transport markets," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 169-179.
    9. Njegovan, Nenad, 2006. "Elasticities of demand for leisure air travel: A system modelling approach," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 33-39.
    10. Tae H. Oum & Waters, W.G. & Jong Say Yong, 1990. "A survey of recent estimates of price elasticities of demand for transport," Policy Research Working Paper Series 359, The World Bank.
    11. Andrea Bigano & Jacqueline M. Hamilton & Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "The Impact Of Climate Change On Domestic And International Tourism: A Simulation Study," Working Papers FNU-58, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2005.
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    Keywords

    International tourism; open skies agreement; carbon dioxide emissions; climate policy; externalities;

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