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Net-zero aviation: Time for a new business model?

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  • Gössling, Stefan
  • Humpe, Andreas

Abstract

Recent years have seen vivid debate on decarbonizing aviation. Carbon-neutral flight is characterized by various barriers, however: Key transition technologies are in early stages of technology readiness, their scalability is uncertain, and airlines are not profitable. The replacement of fossil fuels will demand drop-in quota legislation at a global scale. This paper discusses the implications of continued growth in light of the sector's financial situation. It models the cost of biomass-based and non-biogenic synthetic (electric) fuels in combination with carbon taxes. Findings serve as a basis for the assessment of aviation's likelihood of achieving net-zero emissions without addressing growth. If the current business model – volume growth with very small profit margins – is continued, it is likely that aviation's contribution to climate change will grow, due to constraints in biofuel production, cost, and an increase in non-CO2 warming. To stay within 1.5 °C warming, the sector has to reassess capacity and its relationship with profitability; and to possibly embrace an altogether different business model.

Suggested Citation

  • Gössling, Stefan & Humpe, Andreas, 2023. "Net-zero aviation: Time for a new business model?," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:107:y:2023:i:c:s0969699722001727
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2022.102353
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