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Evaluating the climate impact of aviation emission scenarios towards the Paris agreement including COVID-19 effects

Author

Listed:
  • Volker Grewe

    (Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre
    Delft University of Technology
    ECATS International Association)

  • Arvind Gangoli Rao

    (Delft University of Technology
    ECATS International Association)

  • Tomas Grönstedt

    (ECATS International Association
    Chalmers University of Technology)

  • Carlos Xisto

    (ECATS International Association
    Chalmers University of Technology)

  • Florian Linke

    (ECATS International Association
    Lufttransportsysteme)

  • Joris Melkert

    (Delft University of Technology
    ECATS International Association)

  • Jan Middel

    (ECATS International Association
    Royal Netherlands Aerospace Centre (NLR))

  • Barbara Ohlenforst

    (ECATS International Association
    Royal Netherlands Aerospace Centre (NLR))

  • Simon Blakey

    (ECATS International Association
    University of Birmingham, Mechanical Engineering
    University of Sheffield, Mechanical Engineering, Low Carbon Combustion Centre)

  • Simon Christie

    (ECATS International Association
    Manchester Metropolitan University)

  • Sigrun Matthes

    (Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre
    ECATS International Association)

  • Katrin Dahlmann

    (Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre
    ECATS International Association)

Abstract

Aviation is an important contributor to the global economy, satisfying society’s mobility needs. It contributes to climate change through CO2 and non-CO2 effects, including contrail-cirrus and ozone formation. There is currently significant interest in policies, regulations and research aiming to reduce aviation’s climate impact. Here we model the effect of these measures on global warming and perform a bottom-up analysis of potential technical improvements, challenging the assumptions of the targets for the sector with a number of scenarios up to 2100. We show that although the emissions targets for aviation are in line with the overall goals of the Paris Agreement, there is a high likelihood that the climate impact of aviation will not meet these goals. Our assessment includes feasible technological advancements and the availability of sustainable aviation fuels. This conclusion is robust for several COVID-19 recovery scenarios, including changes in travel behaviour.

Suggested Citation

  • Volker Grewe & Arvind Gangoli Rao & Tomas Grönstedt & Carlos Xisto & Florian Linke & Joris Melkert & Jan Middel & Barbara Ohlenforst & Simon Blakey & Simon Christie & Sigrun Matthes & Katrin Dahlmann, 2021. "Evaluating the climate impact of aviation emission scenarios towards the Paris agreement including COVID-19 effects," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-24091-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24091-y
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    Cited by:

    1. Lai, Y.Y. & Christley, E. & Kulanovic, A. & Teng, C.C. & Björklund, A. & Nordensvärd, J. & Karakaya, E. & Urban, F., 2022. "Analysing the opportunities and challenges for mitigating the climate impact of aviation: A narrative review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    2. Gössling, Stefan & Humpe, Andreas, 2023. "Net-zero aviation: Time for a new business model?," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    3. Pipatpong Fakfare & Walanchalee Wattanacharoensil, 2023. "Low‐carbon tourism for island destinations: A crucial alternative for sustainable development," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), pages 180-197, February.
    4. Cui, Qiang & Jia, Zike, 2023. "Low-efficient aircraft affecting future aviation carbon transfer among South American countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    5. Kinene, Alan & Birolini, Sebastian & Cattaneo, Mattia & Granberg, Tobias Andersson, 2023. "Electric aircraft charging network design for regional routes: A novel mathematical formulation and kernel search heuristic," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 309(3), pages 1300-1315.

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