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Most long-lived contrails form within cirrus clouds with uncertain climate impact

Author

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  • Andreas Petzold

    (Institute of Climate and Energy Systems—Troposphere (ICE-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH
    University of Wuppertal, Institute for Atmospheric and Environmental Research)

  • Neelam F. Khan

    (Institute of Climate and Energy Systems—Troposphere (ICE-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH
    University of Cologne, Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology)

  • Yun Li

    (Institute of Climate and Energy Systems—Troposphere (ICE-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH)

  • Peter Spichtinger

    (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz, Institute for Atmospheric Physics)

  • Susanne Rohs

    (Institute of Climate and Energy Systems—Troposphere (ICE-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH)

  • Susanne Crewell

    (University of Cologne, Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology)

  • Andreas Wahner

    (Institute of Climate and Energy Systems—Troposphere (ICE-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH)

  • Martina Krämer

    (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz, Institute for Atmospheric Physics
    Institute of Climate and Energy Systems—Stratosphere (ICE-4), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH)

Abstract

Contrail-cirrus is considered the most important component of aviation-induced climate impact. However, a reliable assessment requires better understanding of their radiative effects. Analysis of seven years of humidity observations by instrumented passenger aircraft shows that conditions promoting long-lived contrails are fulfilled most often in regions already covered by subvisible or visible cirrus: ~90% over the Northern midlatitudes and almost 100% in the Southeast Asian subtropics, approximately equally distributed among visible and subvisible cirrus clouds. A conceptual analysis shows that subvisible cirrus and clear-sky cover ~10% of the cruise altitude over Northern midlatitudes (

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Petzold & Neelam F. Khan & Yun Li & Peter Spichtinger & Susanne Rohs & Susanne Crewell & Andreas Wahner & Martina Krämer, 2025. "Most long-lived contrails form within cirrus clouds with uncertain climate impact," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-65532-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-65532-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael J. Prather & Andrew Gettelman & Joyce E. Penner, 2025. "Trade-offs in aviation impacts on climate favour non-CO2 mitigation," Nature, Nature, vol. 643(8073), pages 988-993, July.
    2. Matthias Tesche & Peggy Achtert & Paul Glantz & Kevin J. Noone, 2016. "Aviation effects on already-existing cirrus clouds," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 1-6, November.
    3. Volker Grewe & Arvind Gangoli Rao & Tomas Grönstedt & Carlos Xisto & Florian Linke & Joris Melkert & Jan Middel & Barbara Ohlenforst & Simon Blakey & Simon Christie & Sigrun Matthes & Katrin Dahlmann, 2021. "Evaluating the climate impact of aviation emission scenarios towards the Paris agreement including COVID-19 effects," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
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