Fluid reasoning skills at the high school transition predict subsequent dropout

The purpose of this study is to examine the prospective association between fluid reasoning skills in seventh grade and subsequent high school dropout in an at-risk population, independent of a number of important confounders. Participants are 4962 students from one of 56 high schools in the French Canadian province of Quebec. Three quarters of participants were intentionally representative of all schools in disadvantaged areas of the province. The Standard Progressive Matrices was administered to assess fluid reasoning, defined as the requisite skills for critical thought and complex problem resolution in novel situations, regardless of task and setting characteristics. Leaving high school from eighth grade onward, as a developmental milestone, was officially tracked and recorded by government sources. Dropout status was assigned if registration in school was discontinued without returning or obtaining a diploma within the period spanning from fall of Grade 8 to two years beyond expected graduation. Lower fluid reasoning skills significantly predicted less perseverance toward high school completion. Specifically, after adjusting for potential confounders, every standard deviation decrease in fluid reasoning predicted 21% increases in odds of dropout (OR=1.21; 95% C1=1.06–1.37). Youth showing below average fluid reasoning skills at the secondary transition might benefit from teacher-student support and technologically-based interventions that bolster knowledge acquisition and learning-related skills. Early approaches to screening and preventive stimulation before student trajectories become clearly characterized by indiscriminate underachievement might circumvent high school dropout and are likely to be more cost-effective than letting the bio-psycho-social developmental risks associated with dropout take their course.