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The claim that personality is more important than intelligence in predicting important life outcomes has been greatly exaggerated

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  • Zisman, Chen
  • Ganzach, Yoav

Abstract

We conduct a replication of Borghans, Golsteyn, Heckman and Humphries (PNAS, 2016) who suggested that personality is more important than intelligence in predicting important life outcomes. We focus on the prediction of educational (educational attainment, GPA) and occupational (pay) success, and analyze two of the databases that BGHH used (the NLSY79, n = 5594 and the MIDUS, n = 2240) as well as four additional databases, (the NLSY97, n = 2962, the WLS, n = 7646, the PIAAC, n = 3605 and the ADD health, n = 3553; all databases are American except of the PIAAC which is German). We found that for educational attainment the average R2 of intelligence was .232 whereas for personality it was .053. For GPA it was .229 and .024, respectively and for pay it was .080 and .040, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Zisman, Chen & Ganzach, Yoav, 2022. "The claim that personality is more important than intelligence in predicting important life outcomes has been greatly exaggerated," Intelligence, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intell:v:92:y:2022:i:c:s0160289622000125
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intell.2022.101631
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lex Borghans & Bart Golsteyn & James J. Heckman & John Eric Humphries, 2016. "What Grades and Achievement Tests Measure," Working Papers 2016-022, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    2. Pedro Carneiro & James J. Heckman, 2002. "The Evidence on Credit Constraints in Post--secondary Schooling," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(482), pages 705-734, October.
    3. Ganzach, Yoav & Patel, Pankaj C., 2018. "Wages, mental abilities and assessments in large scale international surveys: Still not much more than g," Intelligence, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1-7.
    4. Melissa Osborne & Herbert Gintis & Samuel Bowles, 2001. "The Determinants of Earnings: A Behavioral Approach," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1137-1176, December.
    5. Heckman, James J. & Kautz, Tim, 2012. "Hard evidence on soft skills," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 451-464.
    6. Angela Lee Duckworth & David R. Weir, 2010. "Personality, Lifetime Earnings, and Retirement Wealth," Working Papers wp235, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    7. Demetriou, Andreas & Kazi, Smaragda & Spanoudis, George & Makris, Nikolaos, 2019. "Predicting school performance from cognitive ability, self-representation, and personality from primary school to senior high school," Intelligence, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1-1.
    8. Mosca, Irene & McCrory, Cathal, 2016. "Personality and wealth accumulation among older couples: Do dispositional characteristics pay dividends?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-19.
    9. Camelia M. Kuhnen & Brian T. Melzer, 2018. "Noncognitive Abilities and Financial Delinquency: The Role of Self‐Efficacy in Avoiding Financial Distress," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(6), pages 2837-2869, December.
    10. James J. Heckman & Jora Stixrud & Sergio Urzua, 2006. "The Effects of Cognitive and Noncognitive Abilities on Labor Market Outcomes and Social Behavior," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 24(3), pages 411-482, July.
    11. Demetriou, Andreas & Kazi, Smaragda & Spanoudis, George & Makris, Nikolaos, 2019. "Predicting school performance from cognitive ability, self-representation, and personality from primary school to senior high school," Intelligence, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    12. Charles Murray, 2002. "IQ and Income Inequality in a Sample of Sibling Pairs from Advantaged Family Backgrounds," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 339-343, May.
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    1. Gignac, Gilles E. & Zajenkowski, Marcin, 2025. "Humans peak in midlife: A combined cognitive and personality trait perspective," Intelligence, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).

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