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Genetically modified crops as real options: Identifying regional and country-specific differences

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  • Nadolnyak, Denis
  • Miranda, Mario J.
  • Sheldon, Ian

Abstract

This paper employs real options methodology for evaluating profitability of genetically modified (GM) crops in volatile market and regulatory environments. Observed instances of market entry, or product introduction, are viewed as outcomes of profit maximizing decisions based on comparison of market entry costs, expected future returns, and the value of managerial flexibility. The process is estimated using simulated maximum likelihood. The estimates suggest that, in the developing countries, the downward volatility of the returns is higher resulting in lower adoption rates, whereas the environment in the top four industrialized GMO adopting countries appears to be costlier but much more optimistic. Commercial success of GM soybean and maize in Argentina, Brazil, and the U.S. is explained mostly by a combination of high upward return volatility and moderate entry costs. The findings may contribute to the general understanding, measurement, and possibilities of controlling the rate of technical advance in biotechnology.

Suggested Citation

  • Nadolnyak, Denis & Miranda, Mario J. & Sheldon, Ian, 2011. "Genetically modified crops as real options: Identifying regional and country-specific differences," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 455-463, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:indorg:v:29:y:2011:i:4:p:455-463
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marco, Alan C. & Rausser, Gordon C., 2008. "AJAE Appendix: The Role of Patent Rights in Mergers: Consolidation in Plant Biotechnology," American Journal of Agricultural Economics Appendices, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(1), February.
    2. Sheldon Ian, 2004. "Europe's Regulation of Agricultural Biotechnology: Precaution or Trade Distortion?," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 2(2), pages 1-28, May.
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    4. Alan C. Marco & Gordon C. Rausser, 2008. "The Role of Patent Rights in Mergers: Consolidation in Plant Biotechnology," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(1), pages 133-151.
    5. Pindyck, Robert S, 1988. "Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 969-985, December.
    6. Pakes, Ariel S, 1986. "Patents as Options: Some Estimates of the Value of Holding European Patent Stocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(4), pages 755-784, July.
    7. Alan C. Marco & Gordon C. Rausser, 2008. "The Role of Patent Rights in Mergers: Consolidation in Plant Biotechnology," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(1), pages 133-151.
    8. Titman, Sheridan, 1985. "Urban Land Prices under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 505-514, June.
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