IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/glofin/v58y2023ics104402832300087x.html

The impact of public health emergencies on small and medium-sized enterprises: Evidence from China

Author

Listed:
  • Liu, Qingfu
  • Shi, Chen
  • Tse, Yiuman
  • Zhang, Linlin

Abstract

This article proposes a machine learning-based method to quantify the impact of public health emergencies on the economic benefits and credit risks of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Using natural language processing and text analysis methods, we construct the degree of public health emergencies index using Chinese newspaper data. Based on the panel data of Chinese SMEs, we find that public health emergencies have a strong negative impact on the economic benefits of SMEs, and the impact is uneven across industries. In addition to declining economic benefits, we determine that SMEs' credit default risk is a more serious problem. Our predictive analysis of SMEs' credit default risk after COVID-19 indicates the benefits of using machine learning methods in credit risk assessment and control, providing precise assistance for SMEs.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Qingfu & Shi, Chen & Tse, Yiuman & Zhang, Linlin, 2023. "The impact of public health emergencies on small and medium-sized enterprises: Evidence from China," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:glofin:v:58:y:2023:i:c:s104402832300087x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.gfj.2023.100892
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S104402832300087X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.gfj.2023.100892?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huang, Yun & Luk, Paul, 2020. "Measuring economic policy uncertainty in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    2. Robert W. Fairlie, 2020. "The Impact of Covid-19 on Small Business Owners: The First Three Months after Social-Distancing Restrictions," CESifo Working Paper Series 8581, CESifo.
    3. Zhao, Bo, 2020. "COVID-19 pandemic, health risks, and economic consequences: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    4. Dörr, Julian Oliver & Murmann, Simona & Licht, Georg, 2021. "The COVID-19 insolvency gap: First-round effects of policy responses on SMEs," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-018, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    5. Li, Shanshan, 2022. "COVID-19 and A-share banks' stock price volatility: From the perspective of the epidemic evolution in China and the US," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    6. Hua, Renhai & Liu, Qingfu & Tse, Yiuman & Yu, Qin, 2023. "The impact of natural disaster risk on the return of agricultural futures," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    7. Afees A. Salisu & Lateef O. Akanni, 2020. "Constructing a Global Fear Index for the COVID-19 Pandemic," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 2310-2331, August.
    8. Robert Fairlie, 2020. "The impact of COVID‐19 on small business owners: Evidence from the first three months after widespread social‐distancing restrictions," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 727-740, October.
    9. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    10. Ali, Ashiq & Zhang, Weining, 2015. "CEO tenure and earnings management," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 60-79.
    11. Dai, Ruochen & Feng, Hao & Hu, Junpeng & Jin, Quan & Li, Huiwen & Wang, Ranran & Wang, Ruixin & Xu, Lihe & Zhang, Xiaobo, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs): Evidence from two-wave phone surveys in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    12. Donadelli, Michael & Kizys, Renatas & Riedel, Max, 2017. "Dangerous infectious diseases: Bad news for Main Street, good news for Wall Street?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 84-103.
    13. Forbes, Kristin J., 2004. "The Asian flu and Russian virus: the international transmission of crises in firm-level data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 59-92, May.
    14. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    15. Linlin Sun & Yuefei Yang & Jue Wang & Yunyun Jiang, 2022. "Macroeconomic impacts and transmission channels of an epidemic shock: evidence from the economic performance of China during the 2003 SARS epidemic," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(25), pages 2851-2873, May.
    16. Hoang, Khanh & Nguyen, Cuong & Nguyen, Harvey & Vo, Lai Van, 2023. "Disaster response: The COVID-19 pandemic and insider trading around the world," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    17. McTier, Brian C. & Tse, Yiuman & Wald, John K., 2013. "Do Stock Markets Catch the Flu?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(3), pages 979-1000, June.
    18. Mazur, Mieszko & Dang, Man & Vega, Miguel, 2021. "COVID-19 and the march 2020 stock market crash. Evidence from S&P1500," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    19. Wei Chen & Paul Hribar & Samuel Melessa, 2018. "Incorrect Inferences When Using Residuals as Dependent Variables," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 56(3), pages 751-796, June.
    20. Afees A. Salisu & Lateef O. Akanni, 2020. "Constructing a Global Fear Index for the COVID-19 Pandemic," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 2310-2331, August.
    21. Jin, Yuqian & Liu, Qingfu & Tse, Yiuman & Zheng, Kaixin, 2023. "Hedging Covid-19 risk with ESG disclosure," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 27-46.
    22. Cao, Zhangfan & Rees, William, 2020. "Do employee-friendly firms invest more efficiently? Evidence from labor investment efficiency," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    23. Rizwan, Muhammad Suhail & Ahmad, Ghufran & Ashraf, Dawood, 2020. "Systemic risk: The impact of COVID-19," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    24. Warwick McKibbin & Alexandra Sidorenko, 2006. "Global Macroeconomic Consequences of Pandemic Influenza," CAMA Working Papers 2006-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    25. Costa Junior, Celso J. & Garcia-Cintado, Alejandro C. & Junior, Karlo Marques, 2021. "Macroeconomic policies and the pandemic-driven recession," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 438-465.
    26. Jill Juergensen & José Guimón & Rajneesh Narula, 2020. "European SMEs amidst the COVID-19 crisis: assessing impact and policy responses," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 47(3), pages 499-510, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Qingfu & Shi, Chen & Tse, Yiuman & Wang, Chuanjie, 2023. "The value of communication during pandemics," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    2. Julian Oliver Dörr & Georg Licht & Simona Murmann, 2022. "Small firms and the COVID-19 insolvency gap," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 887-917, February.
    3. Anastasiou, Dimitris & Ballis, Antonis & Drakos, Konstantinos, 2022. "Constructing a positive sentiment index for COVID-19: Evidence from G20 stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    4. Yin, Xiao-Cui & Li, Xin & Wang, Min-Hui & Qin, Meng & Shao, Xue-Feng, 2021. "Do economic policy uncertainty and its components predict China's housing returns?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    5. Su, Zhi & Liu, Peng & Fang, Tong, 2022. "Pandemic-induced fear and stock market returns: Evidence from China," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    6. Zhang, Cheng & Lee, Yun-Chi & Ho, Kung-Cheng & Shen, Xixi, 2023. "Influence of institutional differences on trade credit use during pandemics," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    7. Afees A. Salisu & Abdulsalam Abidemi Sikiru & Philip C. Omoke, 2023. "COVID-19 pandemic and financial innovations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 3885-3904, August.
    8. Li, Zhisheng & Lin, Bingxuan & Liu, Zhouyi & Yüksel, H. Zafer, 2025. "Unpacking the crisis: Impact of COVID-19 on global equity flows," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    9. Chen, Yutong & Debnath, Sisir & Sekhri, Sheetal & Sekhri, Vishal, 2023. "The impact of Covid-19 containment lockdowns on MSMEs in India and resilience of exporting firms," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 320-341.
    10. Hu, Lifang, 2025. "Maturity mismatch and disinvestment as transmission mechanisms: Linking economic policy uncertainty to firm performance," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 94(PB).
    11. Yarovaya, Larisa & Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Goodell, John W. & Lucey, Brian & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2022. "Rethinking financial contagion: Information transmission mechanism during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    12. Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Rieth, Malte, 2023. "Viral shocks to the world economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    13. Dörr, Julian Oliver & Kinne, Jan & Lenz, David & Licht, Georg & Winker, Peter, 2021. "An integrated data framework for policy guidance in times of dynamic economic shocks," ZEW Discussion Papers 21-062, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    14. Dash, Saumya Ranjan & Maitra, Debasish, 2022. "The COVID-19 pandemic uncertainty, investor sentiment, and global equity markets: Evidence from the time-frequency co-movements," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    15. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Charteris, Ailie & Bwanya, Princess Rutendo & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2023. "Which COVID-19 information really impacts stock markets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    16. Donadelli, Michael & Gufler, Ivan & Pellizzari, Paolo, 2020. "The macro and asset pricing implications of rising Italian uncertainty: Evidence from a novel news-based macroeconomic policy uncertainty index," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    17. Wang, Zhixiao & Kong, Dongmin & Liu, Shasha, 2024. "Corporate social responsibility and firm-level systematic risk: The moderating effect of economic policy uncertainty," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    18. Aiyang Yin & Yun Shen & Liang Han, 2026. "Is the capital market walking the walk on board gender diversity? Evidence from stock price crash risk," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 66(3), pages 1215-1252, April.
    19. Harjoto, Maretno Agus & Rossi, Fabrizio & Lee, Robert & Sergi, Bruno S., 2021. "How do equity markets react to COVID-19? Evidence from emerging and developed countries," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    20. Shi, Yujie & Wang, Liming, 2023. "Comparing the impact of Chinese and U.S. economic policy uncertainty on the volatility of major global stock markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:glofin:v:58:y:2023:i:c:s104402832300087x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620162 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.