Factors affecting farmers' intentions to adopt of small-scale afforestation measures in Ireland: An application of the theory of planned behaviour

Small-Scale Afforestation Measures (SSAMs) recently introduced under the Common Agricultural Policy, aim to help meet Ireland's afforestation goals and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. However, little is known about farmers' willingness to adopt SSAMs and the factors influencing their intentions. This study explains farmers' intentions to adopt SSAMs using the Theory of Planned Behaviour in Ireland. A quantitative, cross-sectional survey was conducted with a nationally representative sample of Irish farmers (n = 563) through the Teagasc National Farm Survey. Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) was employed to examine the direct and indirect effects of Attitudes (ATT), Subjective Norm (SNs), and Perceived Behavioural Control (PBC) on farmers' intentions to adopt SSAMs. The results revealed that farmers were generally neutral in their willingness to adopt SSAMs, showing a slight preference for planting under the Agri-Climate Rural Environmental scheme. SEM analysis indicated that SNs were the strongest predictor of farmers' intentions, directly (β = 0.25) and indirectly (β = 0.39), positively influencing the intention. Among the SN related influences, the perceived financial importance of afforestation promoted by main influential bodies emerged as the most significant factor shaping farmers' intentions. ATT (β = 0.44) was the second strongest predictor, with farmers holding positive environmental beliefs but slightly negative ATT towards the economic and land permanence aspects of SSAMs. PBC (β = 0.23) also positively influenced intentions, with farmers reporting low control/confidence due to a lack of technical knowledge, limited access to expert advice, and administrative burdens. This study highlights the importance of social influences and the need for community-based knowledge-sharing to support farmers in adopting SSAMs.