Investigating barriers to afforestation in Ireland: Insights from a choice experiment survey

Afforestation is a key strategy for climate and biodiversity goals, yet uptake in Ireland remains low. This study uses a Choice Experiment to quantify Irish farmers' willingness to accept afforestation incentives under varying contract conditions. Employing Random Parameter Logit and Latent Class models, we find strong resistance to afforestation, primarily driven by two factors: legal irreversibility, captured by mandatory replanting obligations, and financial insecurity, linked to the short duration of support payments. Farmers demand significantly higher compensation for contracts with replanting requirements and for shorter payment terms compared to longer, more secure alternatives. Farmers prefer native over spruce-dominated forests, though preferences vary across segments. Our results reveal substantial preference heterogeneity, indicating farmers differ markedly in their motivations and sensitivities to contract attributes. These findings suggest that improving afforestation uptake will require moving beyond uniform incentives toward tailored contract structures that enhance land-use flexibility, extend support over longer timeframes, and accommodate diverse farmer profiles.