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How do IMF announcements affect financial markets in crises?: Evidence from forward exchange markets

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  • Evrensel, Ayse
  • Kutan, Ali M.

Abstract

We employ a theoretical model to interpret the liquidity and moral hazard effects of IMF support during a financial crisis. We then estimate the response of forward exchange markets to IMF-related announcements, using data on the 3-, 9-, and 12-month forward exchange rates. Our results indicate that the announcement of IMF negotiations is associated with a premium on the baht and the rupiah, where the premium is much larger on the latter. This result is largely consistent with the responses of stock and bond markets, especially when country-specific data are employed.

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  • Evrensel, Ayse & Kutan, Ali M., 2008. "How do IMF announcements affect financial markets in crises?: Evidence from forward exchange markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 121-134, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:4:y:2008:i:2:p:121-134
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Evrensel, Ayse Y. & Kutan, Ali M., 2008. "Impact of IMF-related news on capital markets: Further evidence from bond spreads in Indonesia and Korea," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 147-160, April.
    2. Steven T Phillips & Timothy D. Lane, 2000. "Does IMF Financing Result in Moral Hazard?," IMF Working Papers 00/168, International Monetary Fund.
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    4. Evrensel, Ayse Y. & Kutan, Ali M., 2007. "IMF-related announcements and stock market returns: Evidence from financial and non-financial sectors in Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 80-104, January.
    5. Eichengreen, Barry & Kletzer, Kenneth & Mody, Ashoka, 2006. "The IMF in a world of private capital markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1335-1357, May.
    6. Evrensel, Ayse Y. & Kutan, Ali M., 2006. "Creditor moral hazard in stock markets: Empirical evidence from Indonesia and Korea," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 640-654, June.
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    8. Ali Kutan & Brasukra Sudjana, 2003. "Investor reaction to IMF actions in the indonesian financial crisis," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 181-190.
    9. Stephen Grenville, 2000. "Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate During the Crisis," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 43-60.
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    11. Hayo, Bernd & Kutan, Ali M., 2005. "IMF-related news and emerging financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1126-1142, November.
    12. Zwart, Sanne, 2007. "The mixed blessing of IMF intervention: Signalling versus liquidity support," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 149-174, July.
    13. Ronald I. McKinnon & Huw Pill, 1996. "Credible Liberalizations and International Capital Flows: The "Overborrowing Syndrome"," NBER Chapters,in: Financial Deregulation and Integration in East Asia, NBER-EASE Volume 5, pages 7-50 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ali M. Kutan & Yaz Gülnür Muradoğlu & Zhong Yu, 2016. "Worldwide impact of IMF policies during the Asian crisis: who does the IMF help, creditors or crisis countries?," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 116-147, June.
    2. Kutan, Ali M. & Muradoglu, Gulnur & Sudjana, Brasukra G., 2012. "IMF programs, financial and real sector performance, and the Asian crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 164-182.

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