IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finmar/v58y2022ics1386418121000173.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Inferring trade directions in fast markets

Author

Listed:
  • Jurkatis, Simon

Abstract

The reliability of trade classification algorithms that identify the liquidity demander in financial markets transaction data has been questioned due to an increase in the frequency of quote changes. Hence, this paper proposes a new method. While established algorithms rely on an ad hoc assignment of trades to quotes, the proposed full-information (FI) algorithm actively searches for the quote that matches a trade. The FI algorithm outperforms the existing ones, particularly at low timestamp precision: For data timestamped at seconds misclassification is reduced by half compared to the popular Lee-Ready algorithm. These improvements also carry over into empirical applications such as the estimation of transaction costs. The recently proposed interpolation method and bulk volume classification algorithm do not offer improvements.

Suggested Citation

  • Jurkatis, Simon, 2022. "Inferring trade directions in fast markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:58:y:2022:i:c:s1386418121000173
    DOI: 10.1016/j.finmar.2021.100635
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1386418121000173
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.finmar.2021.100635?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ledoit, Olivier & Wolf, Michael, 2004. "A well-conditioned estimator for large-dimensional covariance matrices," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 365-411, February.
    2. Kingsley Y. L. Fong & Craig W. Holden & Charles A. Trzcinka, 2017. "What Are the Best Liquidity Proxies for Global Research?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(4), pages 1355-1401.
    3. Bessembinder, Hendrik, 2003. "Issues in assessing trade execution costs," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 233-257, May.
    4. Huang, Roger D. & Stoll, Hans R., 1996. "Dealer versus auction markets: A paired comparison of execution costs on NASDAQ and the NYSE," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 313-357, July.
    5. Craig W. Holden & Stacey Jacobsen, 2014. "Liquidity Measurement Problems in Fast, Competitive Markets: Expensive and Cheap Solutions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(4), pages 1747-1785, August.
    6. Theissen, Erik, 2001. "A test of the accuracy of the Lee/Ready trade classification algorithm," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 147-165, June.
    7. Easley, David & de Prado, Marcos Lopez & O'Hara, Maureen, 2016. "Discerning information from trade data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 269-285.
    8. Finucane, Thomas J., 2000. "A Direct Test of Methods for Inferring Trade Direction from Intra-Day Data," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(4), pages 553-576, December.
    9. James J. Angel & Lawrence E. Harris & Chester S. Spatt, 2011. "Equity Trading in the 21stCentury," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(01), pages 1-53.
    10. Panayides, Marios A. & Shohfi, Thomas D. & Smith, Jared D., 2019. "Bulk volume classification and information detection," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 113-129.
    11. Dale W. R. Rosenthal, 2012. "Modeling Trade Direction," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 390-415, 2012 04.
    12. Dmitriy Muravyev, 2016. "Order Flow and Expected Option Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(2), pages 673-708, April.
    13. Michael J. Brennan & Sahn-Wook Huh & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2018. "High-Frequency Measures of Informed Trading and Corporate Announcements," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(6), pages 2326-2376.
    14. Bicu-Lieb, Andreea & Chen, Louisa & Elliott, David, 2020. "The leverage ratio and liquidity in the gilt and gilt repo markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    15. Jianfeng Hu, 2018. "Option Listing and Information Asymmetry," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(3), pages 1153-1194.
    16. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. "Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-746, June.
    17. Henker, Thomas & Wang, Jian-Xin, 2006. "On the importance of timing specifications in market microstructure research," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 162-179, May.
    18. Michiel de Pooter & Martin Martens & Dick van Dijk, 2008. "Predicting the Daily Covariance Matrix for S&P 100 Stocks Using Intraday Data—But Which Frequency to Use?," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1-3), pages 199-229.
    19. Chakrabarty, Bidisha & Li, Bingguang & Nguyen, Vanthuan & Van Ness, Robert A., 2007. "Trade classification algorithms for electronic communications network trades," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3806-3821, December.
    20. Kremer, Stephanie & Nautz, Dieter, 2013. "Causes and consequences of short-term institutional herding," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1676-1686.
    21. Chakrabarty, Bidisha & Pascual, Roberto & Shkilko, Andriy, 2015. "Evaluating trade classification algorithms: Bulk volume classification versus the tick rule and the Lee-Ready algorithm," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 52-79.
    22. David Easley & Marcos M. López de Prado & Maureen O'Hara, 2012. "Flow Toxicity and Liquidity in a High-frequency World," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(5), pages 1457-1493.
    23. Ellis, Katrina & Michaely, Roni & O'Hara, Maureen, 2000. "The Accuracy of Trade Classification Rules: Evidence from Nasdaq," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(4), pages 529-551, December.
    24. Peterson, Mark & Sirri, Erik, 2003. "Evaluation of the biases in execution cost estimation using trade and quote data," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 259-280, May.
    25. Brogaard, Jonathan & Carrion, Allen & Moyaert, Thibaut & Riordan, Ryan & Shkilko, Andriy & Sokolov, Konstantin, 2018. "High frequency trading and extreme price movements," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 253-265.
    26. Hu, Jianfeng, 2014. "Does option trading convey stock price information?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 625-645.
    27. James J. Angel & Lawrence E. Harris & Chester S. Spatt, 2015. "Equity Trading in the 21st Century: An Update," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(01), pages 1-39.
    28. Lee, Charles M. C. & Radhakrishna, Balkrishna, 2000. "Inferring investor behavior: Evidence from TORQ data," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 83-111, May.
    29. Odders-White, Elizabeth R., 2000. "On the occurrence and consequences of inaccurate trade classification," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 259-286, August.
    30. Tarun Chordia & Jianfeng Hu & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam & Qing Tong, 2019. "Order Flow Volatility and Equity Costs of Capital," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(4), pages 1520-1551, April.
    31. repec:oup:rfinst:v:21:y:2017:i:4:p:1355-1401. is not listed on IDEAS
    32. Perlin, Marcelo & Brooks, Chris & Dufour, Alfonso, 2014. "On the performance of the tick test," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 42-50.
    33. Bernile, Gennaro & Hu, Jianfeng & Tang, Yuehua, 2016. "Can information be locked up? Informed trading ahead of macro-news announcements," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 496-520.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lof, Matthijs & van Bommel, Jos, 2023. "Asymmetric information and the distribution of trading volume," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    2. Foley, Sean & Krekel, William & Mollica, Vito & Svec, Jiri, 2023. "Not so fast: Identifying and remediating slow and imprecise cryptocurrency exchange data," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jurkatis, Simon, 2020. "Inferring trade directions in fast markets," Bank of England working papers 896, Bank of England.
    2. Allen Carrion & Madhuparna Kolay, 2020. "Trade signing in fast markets," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 385-404, August.
    3. Ben Omrane, Walid & Welch, Robert, 2016. "Tick test accuracy in foreign exchange ECN markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 135-152.
    4. Aktas, Osman Ulas & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2014. "Trade classification accuracy for the BIST," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 259-282.
    5. Donglian Ma & Pengxiang Zhai, 2021. "The Accuracy of the Tick Rule in the Bitcoin Market," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, May.
    6. Frömmel, Michael & D'Hoore, Dick & Lampaert, Kevin, 2021. "The Accuracy of Trade Classification Systems on the Foreign Exchange Market: Evidence from the RUB/USD Market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    7. Chakrabarty, Bidisha & Pascual, Roberto & Shkilko, Andriy, 2015. "Evaluating trade classification algorithms: Bulk volume classification versus the tick rule and the Lee-Ready algorithm," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 52-79.
    8. Craig W. Holden & Stacey Jacobsen, 2014. "Liquidity Measurement Problems in Fast, Competitive Markets: Expensive and Cheap Solutions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(4), pages 1747-1785, August.
    9. Boehmer, Ekkehart & Grammig, Joachim & Theissen, Erik, 2007. "Estimating the probability of informed trading--does trade misclassification matter?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 26-47, February.
    10. Yan, Yuxing & Zhang, Shaojun, 2014. "Quality of PIN estimates and the PIN-return relationship," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 137-149.
    11. David Michayluk & Laurie Prather, 2008. "A Liquidity Motivated Algorithm for Discerning Trade Direction," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 12(1-2), pages 45-66, March-Jun.
    12. Stoll, Hans R. & Schenzler, Christoph, 2006. "Trades outside the quotes: Reporting delay, trading option, or trade size?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 615-653, March.
    13. Paul Asquith & Rebecca Oman & Christopher Safaya, 2008. "Short Sales and Trade Classification Algorithms," NBER Working Papers 14158, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Asquith, Paul & Oman, Rebecca & Safaya, Christopher, 2010. "Short sales and trade classification algorithms," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 157-173, February.
    15. Peterson, Mark & Sirri, Erik, 2003. "Evaluation of the biases in execution cost estimation using trade and quote data," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 259-280, May.
    16. Dale W. R. Rosenthal, 2012. "Modeling Trade Direction," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 390-415, 2012 04.
    17. Zeynep Cobandag Guloglu & Cumhur Ekinci, 2022. "Liquidity measurement: A comparative review of the literature with a focus on high frequency," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 41-74, February.
    18. Abad, David & Pascual, Roberto, 2015. "The friction-free weighted price contribution," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 226-239.
    19. Rösch, Dominik, 2021. "The impact of arbitrage on market liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 195-213.
    20. Bessembinder, Hendrik, 2003. "Issues in assessing trade execution costs," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 233-257, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade classification algorithm; Trade initiator; Transaction costs; Portfolio optimization; Limit order book; Market microstructure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:58:y:2022:i:c:s1386418121000173. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/finmar .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.