IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finmar/v36y2017icp115-131.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the relation between liquidity and the futures-cash basis: Evidence from a natural experiment

Author

Listed:
  • Han, Jianlei
  • Pan, Zheyao

Abstract

As a response to the 2015 Chinese stock market crash, regulators prohibited arbitrage activities in the index futures and cash markets. We use this natural experiment to test the hypothesis that liquidity and pricing efficiency causally affect each other. We find that resulting shift in the arbitrage boundary led to the breakdown of the two-way causality relation between liquidity and the absolute futures-cash basis. We thus confirm that the relation between liquidity and the absolute futures-cash basis is not driven by the omitted variable bias, but is indeed due to arbitrage.

Suggested Citation

  • Han, Jianlei & Pan, Zheyao, 2017. "On the relation between liquidity and the futures-cash basis: Evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 115-131.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:36:y:2017:i:c:p:115-131
    DOI: 10.1016/j.finmar.2016.12.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1386418116301513
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.finmar.2016.12.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kai Li & Tan Wang & Yan-Leung Cheung & Ping Jiang, 2011. "Privatization and Risk Sharing: Evidence from the Split Share Structure Reform in China," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(7), pages 2499-2525.
    2. Hsiu‐Chuan Lee & Cheng‐Yi Chien & Tzu‐Hsiang Liao, 2012. "Commonality in trading activity and futures‐cash basis: Evidence from the Taiwan futures and stock markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(10), pages 964-994, October.
    3. Tarun Chordia & Richard Roll & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2001. "Market Liquidity and Trading Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 501-530, April.
    4. Jian Yang & Zihui Yang & Yinggang Zhou, 2012. "Intraday price discovery and volatility transmission in stock index and stock index futures markets: Evidence from China," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 99-121, February.
    5. Alessandro Beber & Marco Pagano, 2013. "Short-Selling Bans Around the World: Evidence from the 2007–09 Crisis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(1), pages 343-381, February.
    6. Stoll, Hans R, 1978. "The Supply of Dealer Services in Securities Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(4), pages 1133-1151, September.
    7. Wang, Steven Shuye & Jiang, Li, 2004. "Location of trade, ownership restrictions, and market illiquidity: Examining Chinese A- and H-shares," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1273-1297, June.
    8. Chen, Nai-Fu & Cuny, Charles J & Haugen, Robert A, 1995. "Stock Volatility and the Levels of the Basis and Open Interest in Future Contracts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 281-300, March.
    9. O'Hara, Maureen & Oldfield, George S., 1986. "The Microeconomics of Market Making," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(4), pages 361-376, December.
    10. Richard Roll & Eduardo Schwartz & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2007. "Liquidity and the Law of One Price: The Case of the Futures‐Cash Basis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2201-2234, October.
    11. Boulton, Thomas J. & Braga-Alves, Marcus V., 2010. "The skinny on the 2008 naked short-sale restrictions," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 397-421, November.
    12. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2002. "Order imbalance, liquidity, and market returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 111-130, July.
    13. repec:wyi:journl:002183 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Ekkehart Boehmer & Charles M. Jones & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2013. "Shackling Short Sellers: The 2008 Shorting Ban," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(6), pages 1363-1400.
    15. Kumar, Praveen & Seppi, Duane J, 1994. "Information and Index Arbitrage," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(4), pages 481-509, October.
    16. Kent Wang & Li Miao & Jiawei Li, 2013. "Two-Factor Decomposition Analysis for Correlation between Mainland C hina and H ong K ong Stock Markets," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 93-110, March.
    17. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1989. " The Effects of Beta, Bid-Ask Spread, Residual Risk, and Size on Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 479-486, June.
    18. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    19. Stoll, Hans R, 1978. "The Pricing of Security Dealer Services: An Empirical Study of NASDAQ Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(4), pages 1153-1172, September.
    20. Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1982. "Non-causality due to omitted variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2-3), pages 367-378, August.
    21. Li Liao & Bibo Liu & Hao Wang, 2011. "Information Discovery in Share Lockups: Evidence from the Split‐Share Structure Reform in China," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 1001-1027, December.
    22. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Testing for causality : A personal viewpoint," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 329-352, May.
    23. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
    24. Donald Lien & Gerui Lim & Li Yang & Chunyang Zhou, 2013. "Dynamic Dependence Between Liquidity and the S&P 500 Index Futures‐Cash Basis," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), pages 327-342, April.
    25. Hans R. Stoll, 2000. "Presidential Address: Friction," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1479-1514, August.
    26. Blume, Marshall E & Goldstein, Michael A, 1997. "Quotes, Order Flow, and Price Discovery," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 221-244, March.
    27. Palani‐Rajan Kadapakkam & Umesh Kumar, 2013. "Impact of Liquidity on the Futures‐Cash Basis: Evidence from the Indian Market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 266-298, March.
    28. A. Craig MacKinlay, Krishna Ramaswamy, 1988. "Index-Futures Arbitrage and the Behavior of Stock Index Futures Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(2), pages 137-158.
    29. Craig W. Holden & Stacey Jacobsen & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2014. "The Empirical Analysis of Liquidity," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 8(4), pages 263-365, December.
    30. Francesco Trebbi & Kairong Xiao, 2015. "Regulation and Market Liquidity," NBER Working Papers 21739, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Tarun Chordia, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of Stock and Bond Market Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 85-129.
    32. Gallant, A Ronald & Rossi, Peter E & Tauchen, George, 1992. "Stock Prices and Volume," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 199-242.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wu, Lei & Zeng, Hongchao, 2019. "The impact of liquidity constraints on the cash-futures basis dynamics: Evidence from the Chinese market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 96-110.
    2. Huimin Guo & Zheyao Pan & Gary Gang Tian, 2021. "State ownership and the risk‐reducing effect of corporate derivative use: Evidence from China," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(5-6), pages 1092-1133, May.
    3. Sumit Saurav & Sobhesh Kumar Agarwalla & Jayanth R. Varma, 2024. "Role of derivatives market in attenuating underreaction to left‐tail risk," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(3), pages 484-517, March.
    4. Deng, Xiaohu & Jiang, Christine & Young, Danqing, 2021. "Short selling constraints and politically motivated negative information suppression," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    5. Luiz Augusto Magalhães & Thiago Christiano Silva & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2022. "Hedging commodities in times of distress: The case of COVID‐19," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(10), pages 1941-1959, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chordia, Tarun & Sarkar, Asani & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2005. "The Joint Dynamics of Liquidity, Returns, and Volatility Across Small and Large Firms," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt6z81z2wc, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    2. Andres, Christian & Cumming, Douglas & Karabiber, Timur & Schweizer, Denis, 2014. "Do markets anticipate capital structure decisions? — Feedback effects in equity liquidity," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 133-156.
    3. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2008. "Liquidity and market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 249-268, February.
    4. Wai-Ming Fong & Giorgio Valente & Joseph K.W. Fung, 2008. "FX Arbitrage and Market Liquidity: Statistical Significance and Economic Value," Working Papers 082008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    5. Tarun Chordia & Asani Sarkar & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2003. "An empirical analysis of stock and bond market liquidity," Staff Reports 164, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Palani-Rajan Kadapakkam & Umesh Kumar, 2009. "Impact of Liquidity on the Futures–Cash Basis: Evidence from the Indian Market," Working Papers 0094, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio.
    7. Cenesizoglu, Tolga & Grass, Gunnar, 2018. "Bid- and ask-side liquidity in the NYSE limit order book," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 14-38.
    8. Ramos, Henrique Pinto & Righi, Marcelo Brutti, 2020. "Liquidity, implied volatility and tail risk: A comparison of liquidity measures," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    9. Sergio Bianchi & Massimiliano Frezza, 2018. "Liquidity, Efficiency and the 2007-2008 Global Financial Crisis," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 19(2), pages 375-404, November.
    10. Söderberg, Jonas, 2008. "Liquidity on the Scandinavian Order-driven Stock Exchanges," CAFO Working Papers 2009:11, Linnaeus University, Centre for Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO), School of Business and Economics.
    11. Qingjing Zhang & Taufiq Choudhry & Jing-Ming Kuo & Xiaoquan Liu, 2021. "Does liquidity drive stock market returns? The role of investor risk aversion," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 929-958, October.
    12. Vayanos, Dimitri & Wang, Jiang, 2013. "Market Liquidity—Theory and Empirical Evidence ," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1289-1361, Elsevier.
    13. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Girardi, Alessandro & Paesani, Paolo, 2012. "Quoted spreads and trade imbalance dynamics in the European Treasury bond market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 173-182.
    14. Wu, Lei & Zeng, Hongchao, 2019. "The impact of liquidity constraints on the cash-futures basis dynamics: Evidence from the Chinese market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 96-110.
    15. Roll, Richard & Schwartz, Eduardo & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2014. "Trading activity in the equity market and its contingent claims: An empirical investigation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 13-35.
    16. Tarun Chordia & Asani Sarkar & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2001. "Common determinants of bond and stock market liquidity: the impact of financial crises, monetary policy, and mutual fund flows," Staff Reports 141, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    17. Xu, Yongdeng & Taylor, Nick & Lu, Wenna, 2018. "Illiquidity and volatility spillover effects in equity markets during and after the global financial crisis: An MEM approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 208-220.
    18. Söderberg, Jonas, 2008. "Do Macroeconomic Variables Forecast Changes in Liquidity? An Out-of-sample Study on the Order-driven Stock Markets in Scandinavia," CAFO Working Papers 2009:10, Linnaeus University, Centre for Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO), School of Business and Economics.
    19. Angelidis, Timotheos & Andrikopoulos, Andreas, 2010. "Idiosyncratic risk, returns and liquidity in the London Stock Exchange: A spillover approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 214-221, June.
    20. Múnera, Daimer J. & Agudelo, Diego A., 2022. "Who moved my liquidity? Liquidity evaporation in emerging markets in periods of financial uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Futures-cash basis; Liquidity; Trading restrictions; Arbitrage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:36:y:2017:i:c:p:115-131. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/finmar .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.