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Memecoin contagion: Irrationality, illicit behaviour, and Cryptocurrency risk

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  • Conlon, Thomas
  • Corbet, Shaen

Abstract

We investigate the contagion effects of rapid memecoin growth, a phenomenon often characterised by irrational exuberance and illicit behaviour. Using an EGARCH methodology, the results indicate that while memecoin growth generates revenue for host platforms like Ethereum and Solana, it broadly increases market-wide risk and is detrimental to established cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin. Furthermore, we find that PolitiFi memecoins are uniquely susceptible, characterised by positive responses to broad memecoin growth, exhibiting statistical properties deeming them attractive due to the cloaking provided by wider memecoin market growth, without evidence for tangible purposes.

Suggested Citation

  • Conlon, Thomas & Corbet, Shaen, 2025. "Memecoin contagion: Irrationality, illicit behaviour, and Cryptocurrency risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:86:y:2025:i:pa:s1544612325015181
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.108264
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Li, Chao & Yang, Haijun, 2022. "Will memecoins’ surge trigger a crypto crash? Evidence from the connectedness between leading cryptocurrencies and memecoins," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    2. Proelss, Juliane & Schweizer, Denis & Sévigny, Stéphane, 2025. "PolitiFi: Just another meme, or instrumental for winning elections?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    3. Lin William Cong & Ye Li & Neng Wang, 2021. "Tokenomics: Dynamic Adoption and Valuation [The demand of liquid assets with uncertain lumpy expenditures]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 1105-1155.
    4. Alok Kumar, 2009. "Who Gambles in the Stock Market?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1889-1933, August.
    5. Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Hoque, Mohammad Enamul & Billah, Mabruk & Alam, Md. Kausar, 2024. "Connectedness across meme assets and sectoral markets: Determinants and portfolio management," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    6. Almeida, José & Gaio, Cristina & Gonçalves, Tiago Cruz, 2024. "Crypto market relationships with bric countries' uncertainty – A wavelet-based approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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