IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v85y2025ipes1544612325014990.html

Analyst forecast behavior under trade uncertainty: Evidence from China

Author

Listed:
  • Gu, Zhenhua
  • Gu, Chen
  • Zhang, Chengping

Abstract

This paper examines how trade uncertainty affects financial analysts' forecast behavior in China. Our results indicate that higher trade uncertainty leads to more pessimistic and less accurate forecasts, delayed forecast issuance, and less dispersed analyst EPS estimates. These effects are more pronounced for non-star analysts compared to star analysts. We also find that analysts covering firms with higher international trade exposure make larger forecast errors. Our study contributes to the literature by revealing heterogeneity in analysts' responses to trade uncertainty, mainly driven by differences in analyst expertise and firm-level global trade exposure.

Suggested Citation

  • Gu, Zhenhua & Gu, Chen & Zhang, Chengping, 2025. "Analyst forecast behavior under trade uncertainty: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(PE).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:85:y:2025:i:pe:s1544612325014990
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.108245
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612325014990
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2025.108245?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chen, Min & Zhu, Zhaobo & Han, Peiwen & Chen, Bo & Liu, Jia, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and analyst behaviours: Evidence from the United Kingdom," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    2. Dang, Tam Hoang-Nhat & Nguyen, Canh Phuc & Lee, Gabriel S. & Nguyen, Binh Quang & Le, Thuy Thu, 2023. "Measuring the energy-related uncertainty index," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    3. Bianconi, Marcelo & Esposito, Federico & Sammon, Marco, 2021. "Trade policy uncertainty and stock returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    4. Xu, Nianhang & Jiang, Xuanyu & Chan, Kam C. & Yi, Zhihong, 2013. "Analyst coverage, optimism, and stock price crash risk: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 217-239.
    5. Bing Han & Dongmin Kong & Shasha Liu, 2018. "Do Analysts Gain an Informational Advantage by Visiting Listed Companies?," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(4), pages 1843-1867, December.
    6. Xu, Nianhang & Chan, Kam C. & Jiang, Xuanyu & Yi, Zhihong, 2013. "Do star analysts know more firm-specific information? Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 89-102.
    7. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2017. "Common and country specific economic uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 205-216.
    8. Andrew R. Jackson, 2005. "Trade Generation, Reputation, and Sell‐Side Analysts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 673-717, April.
    9. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    10. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    11. Michael B. Clement & Senyo Y. Tse, 2005. "Financial Analyst Characteristics and Herding Behavior in Forecasting," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 307-341, February.
    12. Foong Soon Cheong & Jacob Thomas, 2011. "Why Do EPS Forecast Error and Dispersion Not Vary with Scale? Implications for Analyst and Managerial Behavior," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 49(2), pages 359-401, May.
    13. Handley, Kyle, 2014. "Exporting under trade policy uncertainty: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 50-66.
    14. X. Frank Zhang, 2006. "Information Uncertainty and Analyst Forecast Behavior," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(2), pages 565-590, June.
    15. Hao Jiang & Michela Verardo, 2018. "Does Herding Behavior Reveal Skill? An Analysis of Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(5), pages 2229-2269, October.
    16. Roger K. Loh & René M. Stulz, 2018. "Is Sell‐Side Research More Valuable in Bad Times?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(3), pages 959-1013, June.
    17. Jiang, Hao & Verardo, Michela, 2018. "Does herding behavior reveal skill? An analysis of mutual fund performance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86372, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Liu, Na & Gao, Fumin, 2022. "The world uncertainty index and GDP growth rate," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    19. Stickel, Scott E, 1992. "Reputation and Performance among Security Analysts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1811-1836, December.
    20. Min Chen & Zhaobo Zhu & Peiwen Han & Bo Chen & Jia Liu, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and analyst behaviours: Evidence from the United Kingdom," Post-Print hal-03628930, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Chao & Shrider, David G. & Han, Dun & Wu, Yanran, 2022. "Accurate forecasts attract clients; Biased forecasts keep them happy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    2. Qian, Binsheng & Tan, Yusen & Power, Gabriel & Mandal, Anandadeep, 2025. "Economic policy uncertainty, information production, and transparency," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    3. Min Chen & Jiaxin Chang & Zhaobo Zhu & Yuanhong Zhang, 2026. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Analyst Behaviors: Evidence from China," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 27(1), pages 113-143, May.
    4. Le, Cao Hoang Anh & Shan, Yaowen & Taylor, Stephen, 2024. "International economic policy uncertainty and analysts' earnings forecasts," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    5. Cheng, Maoyong & Li, Zhenjun & Kong, Dongmin, 2025. "Analysts' escape: The information cost of anti-organized crime," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    6. Wu, Yanran & Zhang, Chao, 2022. "Hard to arbitrage, hard for analysts to forecast," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    7. Sinha, Rajesh Kumar, 2021. "Macro disagreement and analyst forecast properties," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1).
    8. An, Suwei, 2023. "Essays on incentive contracts, M&As, and firm risk," Other publications TiSEM dd97d2f5-1c9d-47c5-ba62-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    9. Syed Riaz Mahmood Ali, 2022. "Herding in different states and terms: evidence from the cryptocurrency market," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(4), pages 322-336, July.
    10. Jannati, Sima & Khalaf, Sarah & Nguyen, Du, 2025. "The up side of being down: Depression and crowdsourced forecasts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    11. Marco Navone & Fernando Zapatero, 2014. "Why Do Financial Analysts Strive to Be Irrelevant? Career Concerns and Endogenous Coverage Termination," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1507, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    12. Carina Cuculiza & Alok Kumar & Wei Xin & Chendi Zhang, 2026. "Temperature Sensitivity, Mispricing, and Predictable Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 72(3), pages 1918-1958, March.
    13. Yi Dong & Xuejiao Liu & Gerald J. Lobo & Chenkai Ni, 2024. "Overprecise forecasts," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 276-326, March.
    14. Zhaobo Zhu & Licheng Sun, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and short-term reversals," Post-Print hal-04691597, HAL.
    15. Song, Jian & Zhou, Xiaozhou, 2025. "How does foreign economic policy uncertainty affect domestic analyst earnings forecasts?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    16. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Yahya, Farzan, 2025. "Understanding the asymmetric impact of non-fundamental behavioral shocks on trade efficiency: Evidence from China's trade partners," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 237-263.
    17. Mei-Chen Lin & J. Jimmy Yang, 2023. "Do lottery characteristics matter for analysts’ forecast behavior?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1057-1091, October.
    18. Erik Kole & Liesbeth Noordegraaf-Eelens & Bas Vringer, 2025. "Cognitive biases in consumer sentiment: the peak-end rule and herding," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 69(4), pages 2141-2211, October.
    19. Zhang, Chao & Song, Xiaoxiao & Wang, Cancan, 2025. "The bright side of analyst coverage: Evidence from stock price resilience during COVID-19," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA).
    20. Li, Mengjia & Ding, Wenjie & Li, Hao & Wang, Qingwei & Xiao, Jason Zezhong, 2025. "Sell-side financial analyst social network and forecast accuracy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:85:y:2025:i:pe:s1544612325014990. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.