IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v74y2025ics1544612324015721.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is Bitcoin the best safe haven against geopolitical risk ?

Author

Listed:
  • Chibane, Messaoud
  • Janson, Nathalie

Abstract

We revisit the ability of well-known safe havens to protect U.S equity against geopolitical risk. Using S&P 500 and GPR index weekly data we estimate a crash model where the equity crash probability is driven by geopolitical risk. We find that Bitcoin and the Swiss Franc function as safe havens in relation to geopolitical risk in times of market crashes while Gold and Treasury bonds do not. Our results show that the protective aspects of Bitcoin and the Swiss Franc mainly show through large stock market moves rather than during moderate variations.

Suggested Citation

  • Chibane, Messaoud & Janson, Nathalie, 2025. "Is Bitcoin the best safe haven against geopolitical risk ?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:74:y:2025:i:c:s1544612324015721
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2024.106543
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612324015721
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2024.106543?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    2. Dirk G. Baur & Brian M. Lucey, 2010. "Is Gold a Hedge or a Safe Haven? An Analysis of Stocks, Bonds and Gold," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 217-229, May.
    3. Selmi, Refk & Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Bouoiyour, Jamal, 2018. "Is Bitcoin a hedge, a safe haven or a diversifier for oil price movements? A comparison with gold," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 787-801.
    4. Hossfeld, Oliver & MacDonald, Ronald, 2015. "Carry funding and safe haven currencies: A threshold regression approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 185-202.
    5. Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2022. "Jumps in Geopolitical Risk and the Cryptocurrency Market: The Singularity of Bitcoin," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 150-161, February.
    6. Vincent Bogousslavsky, 2016. "Infrequent Rebalancing, Return Autocorrelation, and Seasonality," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(6), pages 2967-3006, December.
    7. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Vangelis Arvanitis, 2013. "Symposium - Does Terrorism Affect the Stock-Bond Covariance? Evidence from European Countries," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 79(4), pages 832-848, April.
    8. Umar, Muhammad & Su, Chi-Wei & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Shao, Xue-Feng, 2021. "Bitcoin: A safe haven asset and a winner amid political and economic uncertainties in the US?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    9. Ali, Syed Riaz Mahmood & Anik, Kaysul Islam & Hasan, Mohammad Nurul & Kamal, Md Rajib, 2023. "Geopolitical threats, equity returns, and optimal hedging," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    10. Feng, Chaonan & Han, Liyan & Vigne, Samuel & Xu, Yang, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and the dynamics of international capital flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    11. Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 2000. "Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1343-1376, November.
    12. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Vangelis Arvanitis, 2013. "Symposium - Does Terrorism Affect the Stock-Bond Covariance? Evidence from European Countries," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 832-848, April.
    13. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Vangelis Arvanitis, 2013. "Does Terrorism Affect the Stock‐Bond Covariance? Evidence from European Countries," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 79(4), pages 832-848, April.
    14. Choudhury, Tonmoy & Kinateder, Harald & Neupane, Biwesh, 2022. "Gold, bonds, and epidemics: A safe haven study," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    15. Gaies, Brahim & Nakhli, Mohamed Sahbi & Sahut, Jean-Michel & Schweizer, Denis, 2023. "Interactions between investors’ fear and greed sentiment and Bitcoin prices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    16. Gronwald, Marc, 2019. "Is Bitcoin a Commodity? On price jumps, demand shocks, and certainty of supply," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 86-92.
    17. Kinateder, Harald & Gurrib, Ikhlaas & Choudhury, Tonmoy, 2024. "Navigating crises: Gold's role as a safe haven for U.S. sectors," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).
    18. Gaies, Brahim & Nakhli, Mohamed Sahbi & Sahut, Jean Michel & Guesmi, Khaled, 2021. "Is Bitcoin rooted in confidence? – Unraveling the determinants of globalized digital currencies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    19. Bates, David S., 2000. "Post-'87 crash fears in the S&P 500 futures option market," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 181-238.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hampl, Filip & Vágnerová Linnertová, Dagmar & Horváth, Matúš, 2024. "Crypto havens during war times? Evidence from the Russian invasion of Ukraine," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    2. Selmi, Refk & Bouoiyour, Jamal & Wohar, Mark E., 2022. "“Digital Gold” and geopolitics," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    3. Jana, Rabin K., 2024. "Are metaverse coins more prone to geopolitical risk than traditional crypto assets?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 436-447.
    4. Hoque, Mohammad Enamul & Billah, Mabruk & Alam, Md Rafayet & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2024. "Gold-backed cryptocurrencies: A hedging tool against categorical and regional financial stress," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    5. Gozgor, Giray & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Sheng, Xin & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2019. "The role of uncertainty measures on the returns of gold," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    6. Ángeles Cebrián-Hernández & Enrique Jiménez-Rodríguez, 2021. "Modeling of the Bitcoin Volatility through Key Financial Environment Variables: An Application of Conditional Correlation MGARCH Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-16, January.
    7. Xu, Yongdeng & Guan, Bo & Lu, Wenna & Heravi, Saeed, 2024. "Macroeconomic shocks and volatility spillovers between stock, bond, gold and crude oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    8. Da Fonseca, José & Ignatieva, Katja, 2019. "Jump activity analysis for affine jump-diffusion models: Evidence from the commodity market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 45-62.
    9. Gaies, Brahim & Chaâbane, Najeh & Arfaoui, Nadia & Sahut, Jean-Michel, 2024. "On the resilience of cryptocurrencies: A quantile-frequency analysis of bitcoin and ethereum reactions in times of inflation and financial instability," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PA).
    10. Almeida, José & Gaio, Cristina & Gonçalves, Tiago Cruz, 2024. "Crypto market relationships with bric countries' uncertainty – A wavelet-based approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    11. Le, TN-Lan & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2021. "Time and frequency domain connectedness and spill-over among fintech, green bonds and cryptocurrencies in the age of the fourth industrial revolution," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    12. Segnon, Mawuli & Gupta, Rangan & Wilfling, Bernd, 2024. "Forecasting stock market volatility with regime-switching GARCH-MIDAS: The role of geopolitical risks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 29-43.
    13. Sangyup Choi & Junhyeok Shin, 2020. "Brave New World? Bitcoin is not the New Gold: Understanding Cryptocurrency Price Dynamics," Working papers 2020rwp-167, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    14. Ewa Feder-Sempach & Piotr Szczepocki & Joanna Bogołębska, 2024. "Global uncertainty and potential shelters: gold, bitcoin, and currencies as weak and strong safe havens for main world stock markets," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-23, December.
    15. Νikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2021. "The effects of geopolitical uncertainty on cryptocurrencies and other financial assets," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-14, January.
    16. Ali, Syed Riaz Mahmood & Anik, Kaysul Islam & Hasan, Mohammad Nurul & Kamal, Md Rajib, 2023. "Geopolitical threats, equity returns, and optimal hedging," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    17. Ming, Lei & Yang, Ping & Tian, Xinyi & Yang, Shenggang & Dong, Minyi, 2023. "Safe haven for crude oil: Gold or currencies?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    18. Gök, Remzi & Bouri, Elie & Gemici, Eray, 2022. "Can Twitter-based economic uncertainty predict safe-haven assets under all market conditions and investment horizons?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    19. Zhang, Zhengyong & Bouri, Elie & Klein, Tony & Jalkh, Naji, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and the returns and volatility of global defense companies: A new race to arms?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    20. José, Barrales-Ruíz & Pino, Gabriel, 2024. "On the effect of short-run and long-run US economic expectations on oil and gold volatilities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Geopolitical risk; S&P 500; Safe haven; Market crash;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E14 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Austrian; Evolutionary; Institutional
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:74:y:2025:i:c:s1544612324015721. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.