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Exploring the time-varying dependence between Bitcoin and the global stock market: Evidence from a TVP-VAR approach

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  • Zhao, Junming
  • Zhang, Tianding

Abstract

This study examines the return dependence between Bitcoin and major international stock markets from January 1, 2018, to September 30, 2021. Utilizing a time-varying parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility, we analyze the dynamics of the dependence structure while considering market uncertainty indices (UCRY Policy, UCRY Price and VIX) before and after the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings indicate that Bitcoin's role as a safe haven for stock markets has yet to be observed during the post-COVID-19 period. Furthermore, we observe varying impacts of the return correlation between different stock markets and Bitcoin, suggesting an asymmetric dependence. These results contribute to the ongoing discussion regarding Bitcoin's role as a safe haven asset and provide valuable insight for investors and policymakers.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhao, Junming & Zhang, Tianding, 2023. "Exploring the time-varying dependence between Bitcoin and the global stock market: Evidence from a TVP-VAR approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:58:y:2023:i:pa:s1544612323007146
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2023.104342
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Bajra, Ujkan Q. & Aliu, Florin, 2023. "Deciphering the cryptocurrency conundrum: Investigating speculative characteristics and volatility," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dependence; Bitcoin; Stock market; TVP-VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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