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Vine copula-based dependence and portfolio value-at-risk analysis of the cryptocurrency market

Author

Listed:
  • Gideon Boako
  • Aviral Kumar Tiwari
  • David Roubaud

Abstract

In this paper, we use vine copula approaches to model the co-dependence and portfolio value-at-risk (VaR) of six cryptocurrencies using data of daily periodicity from September 2015 to June 2018. We establish evidence of strong dependencies among the virtual currencies with a dynamic dependency structure. We find that among the class of cryptocurrencies examined, Ethereum offers the best optimal and economically risk-reward trade-off subject to a no-shorting constraint for portfolio investors using the efficient frontier. Given the paucity of empirical research on the cryptocurrency markets, this paper provides new insights, which could be useful in developing dependence and risk strategies for investment and hedging purposes, especially during more volatile periods in the markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Gideon Boako & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & David Roubaud, 2019. "Vine copula-based dependence and portfolio value-at-risk analysis of the cryptocurrency market," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 158, pages 77-90.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiie:2019-q2-158-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Karimi, Parinaz & Mirzaee Ghazani, Majid & Ebrahimi, Seyed Babak, 2023. "Analyzing spillover effects of selected cryptocurrencies on gold and brent crude oil under COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from GJR-GARCH and EVT copula methods," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    2. Zhao, Junming & Zhang, Tianding, 2023. "Exploring the time-varying dependence between Bitcoin and the global stock market: Evidence from a TVP-VAR approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    3. Garcia-Jorcano, Laura & Benito, Sonia, 2020. "Studying the properties of the Bitcoin as a diversifying and hedging asset through a copula analysis: Constant and time-varying," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    4. Bouri, Elie & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Saeed, Tareq, 2021. "Return equicorrelation in the cryptocurrency market: Analysis and determinants," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    5. Syuhada, Khreshna & Hakim, Arief & Suprijanto, Djoko & Muchtadi-Alamsyah, Intan & Arbi, Lukman, 2022. "Is Tether a safe haven of safe haven amid COVID-19? An assessment against Bitcoin and oil using improved measures of risk," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    6. Carlos Esparcia & Tarek Fakhfakh & Francisco Jareño & Achraf Ghorbel, 2024. "Dynamic DeFi-G7 stock markets interactions and their potential role in diversifying and hedging strategies," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-26, December.
    7. Vahidin Jeleskovic & Mirko Meloni & Zahid Irshad Younas, 2020. "Cryptocurrencies: A Copula Based Approach for Asymmetric Risk Marginal Allocations," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202034, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    8. Jie Cheng, 2023. "Modelling and forecasting risk dependence and portfolio VaR for cryptocurrencies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(2), pages 899-924, August.
    9. Pham, Thach N. & Powell, Robert & Bannigidadmath, Deepa, 2024. "Tail risk network analysis of Asian banks," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    10. Mianmian Zhang & Bing Zhu & Ziyuan Li & Siyuan Jin & Yong Xia, 2024. "Relationships among return and liquidity of cryptocurrencies," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-30, December.
    11. Abid, Ilyes & Bouri, Elie & Galariotis, Emilios & Guesmi, Khaled & Mzoughi, Hela, 2023. "Bitcoin vs. fiat currencies: Insights from extreme dependence and risk spillover analysis with financial markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    12. Díaz, Antonio & Esparcia, Carlos & Huélamo, Diego, 2023. "Stablecoins as a tool to mitigate the downside risk of cryptocurrency portfolios," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    13. Nikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2021. "A Survey on Volatility Fluctuations in the Decentralized Cryptocurrency Financial Assets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-46, June.
    14. Osman, Myriam Ben & Galariotis, Emilios & Guesmi, Khaled & Hamdi, Haykel & Naoui, Kamel, 2023. "Diversification in financial and crypto markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    15. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Kang, Woo-Young & Spagnolo, Fabio & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2021. "Cyber-attacks, spillovers and contagion in the cryptocurrency markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    16. Chemkha, Rahma & BenSaïda, Ahmed & Ghorbel, Ahmed, 2021. "Connectedness between cryptocurrencies and foreign exchange markets: Implication for risk management," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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