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Novel modeling for assessment of extreme values risk in cryptocurrencies portfolio

Author

Listed:
  • Shafique Ur Rehman

    (University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Touqeer Ahmad

    (CREST, ENSAI, University of Rennes)

  • Desheng Wu

    (University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

This study addresses risk management for a ten-dimensional cryptocurrency portfolio, focusing on value at risk, expected shortfall, and range value at risk. It introduces a hybrid model combining the ARMA-EGARCH approach with flexible bulk and tails extreme value distribution and copula functions to improve risk measurement. The results show that the ARMA-EGARCH-EVT copula model better captures dependencies and outperforms traditional risk assessment methods (such as historical simulations and the variance covariance paradigm). This study underscores the potential of using a novel extreme value theory probability model to enhance risk assessment and provide valuable insights for investors and financial policymakers.

Suggested Citation

  • Shafique Ur Rehman & Touqeer Ahmad & Desheng Wu, 2025. "Novel modeling for assessment of extreme values risk in cryptocurrencies portfolio," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 69(4), pages 2065-2092, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:69:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1007_s00181-025-02784-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-025-02784-3
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