IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v55y2023ipbs1544612323003033.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of EPU spillovers on the bond market volatility: Global evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Gong, Yuting
  • Li, Xiao
  • Xue, Wenjun

Abstract

This paper studies the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) spillovers from other countries on local bond market volatility. Using multivariate quantile model (White et al., 2015), we develop a country-specific EPU spillover measure for 23 economies from 2003 to 2019. We find that EPU spillovers have a significantly positive effect on local bond market volatility. This effect becomes stronger if the spillovers are from developed markets and when the spillovers are measured during financial crises. Recognizing the relation between EPU spillovers and bond volatility can motivate policy makers to closely monitor foreign EPU and take actions to alleviate the detrimental influence when foreign EPU rises.

Suggested Citation

  • Gong, Yuting & Li, Xiao & Xue, Wenjun, 2023. "The impact of EPU spillovers on the bond market volatility: Global evidence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:55:y:2023:i:pb:s1544612323003033
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2023.103931
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612323003033
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2023.103931?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. He, Feng & Wang, Ziwei & Yin, Libo, 2020. "Asymmetric volatility spillovers between international economic policy uncertainty and the U.S. stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    2. Libing Fang & Baizhu Chen & Honghai Yu & Yichuo Qian, 2018. "The importance of global economic policy uncertainty in predicting gold futures market volatility: A GARCH‐MIDAS approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 413-422, March.
    3. Jones, Charles M. & Lamont, Owen & Lumsdaine, Robin L., 1998. "Macroeconomic news and bond market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 315-337, March.
    4. Raju Huidrom & M. Ayhan Kose & Hideaki Matsuoka & Franziska L. Ohnsorge, 2020. "How important are spillovers from major emerging markets?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 47-63, March.
    5. Yen, Kuang-Chieh & Cheng, Hui-Pei, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and cryptocurrency volatility," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    6. Duyvesteyn, Johan & Martens, Martin & Verwijmeren, Patrick, 2016. "Political risk and expected government bond returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 498-512.
    7. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    8. Alexander David & Pietro Veronesi, 2013. "What Ties Return Volatilities to Price Valuations and Fundamentals?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(4), pages 682-746.
    9. White, Halbert & Kim, Tae-Hwan & Manganelli, Simone, 2015. "VAR for VaR: Measuring tail dependence using multivariate regression quantiles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 169-188.
    10. Balli, Faruk & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Mudassar, Hasan & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2017. "Cross-country determinants of economic policy uncertainty spillovers," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 179-183.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Menelaos Karanasos & Stavroula Yfanti, 2019. "Macro-Financial Linkages in the High-Frequency Domain: The Effects of Uncertainty on Realized Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 8000, CESifo.
    2. Ranajit Kumar Bairagi, 2022. "Dynamic Impacts of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Australian Stock Market: An Intercontinental Evidence," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 21(1), pages 64-91, March.
    3. Zhou, Yuqin & Liu, Zhenhua & Wu, Shan, 2022. "The global economic policy uncertainty spillover analysis: In the background of COVID-19 pandemic," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    4. Li, Dongxin & Zhang, Li & Li, Lihong, 2023. "Forecasting stock volatility with economic policy uncertainty: A smooth transition GARCH-MIDAS model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    5. M. Karanasos & S. Yfanti & J. Hunter, 2022. "Emerging stock market volatility and economic fundamentals: the importance of US uncertainty spillovers, financial and health crises," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 1077-1116, June.
    6. Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2020. "Spillovers across macroeconomic, financial and real estate uncertainties: A time-varying approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 167-173.
    7. Gong, Yuting & He, Zhongzhi & Xue, Wenjun, 2022. "EPU spillovers and stock return predictability: A cross-country study," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    8. Wang, Ziwei & Li, Youwei & He, Feng, 2020. "Asymmetric volatility spillovers between economic policy uncertainty and stock markets: Evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    9. Yuting Gong & Zhongzhi He & Wenjun Xue, 2023. "EPU spillovers and sovereign CDS spreads: A cross‐country study," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(12), pages 1770-1806, December.
    10. Nikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2021. "The Nexus of Sophisticated Digital Assets with Economic Policy Uncertainty: A Survey of Empirical Findings and an Empirical Investigation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-25, May.
    11. Zeng, Qing & Ma, Feng & Lu, Xinjie & Xu, Weiju, 2022. "Policy uncertainty and carbon neutrality: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    12. Karanasos, M. & Yfanti, S., 2021. "On the Economic fundamentals behind the Dynamic Equicorrelations among Asset classes: Global evidence from Equities, Real estate, and Commodities," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    13. Xie, Yutang & Cao, Yujia & Li, Xiaotao, 2023. "The importance of trade policy uncertainty to energy consumption in a changing world," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    14. Marcello Pericoli, 2018. "Macroeconomics determinants of the correlation between stocks and bonds," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1198, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    15. Bakhsh, Satar & Zhang, Wei, 2023. "How does natural resource price volatility affect economic performance? A threshold effect of economic policy uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    16. Jun Wen & Samia Khalid & Hamid Mahmood & Xiuyun Yang, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and growth nexus in Pakistan: a new evidence using NARDL model," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1701-1715, August.
    17. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Ozdemir, Huseyin & Aygun, Gurcan & Wohar, Mark E., 2021. "Effectives of Monetary Policy under the High and Low Economic Uncertainty States: Evidence from the Major Asian Economies," IZA Discussion Papers 14420, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Ren, Yinghua & Tan, Anqi & Zhu, Huiming & Zhao, Wanru, 2022. "Does economic policy uncertainty drive nonlinear risk spillover in the commodity futures market?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    19. Lin, Boqiang & Bai, Rui, 2021. "Oil prices and economic policy uncertainty: Evidence from global, oil importers, and exporters’ perspective," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    20. Weilong Wang & Jianlong Wang & Shaersaikai Wulaer & Bing Chen & Xiaodong Yang, 2021. "The Effect of Innovative Entrepreneurial Vitality on Economic Resilience Based on a Spatial Perspective: Economic Policy Uncertainty as a Moderating Variable," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-23, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    EPU spillovers; Country-level bond market volatility; Multivariate quantile model; International asset pricing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:55:y:2023:i:pb:s1544612323003033. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.