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A note of techniques that mitigate floating-point errors in PIN estimation

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  • Ke, Wen-Chyan
  • Chen, Hueiling
  • Lin, Hsiou-Wei William

Abstract

This study aims at the estimation of the probability of informed trading (PIN), which may fail for stocks with high levels of trading activities due to a computer's floating-point exception (FPE). In this paper, we discuss two solutions of adopting scaled trade counts and reformulating the likelihood to estimate PIN for actively traded stocks. This study shows that, although scaled data mitigates the impact of the FPE, the effectiveness of scaled data, however, appears to underperform when users adopt the unsuitable expression of the likelihood function. In contrast, the remedy of reformulating the likelihood is more stable.

Suggested Citation

  • Ke, Wen-Chyan & Chen, Hueiling & Lin, Hsiou-Wei William, 2019. "A note of techniques that mitigate floating-point errors in PIN estimation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:31:y:2019:i:c:s1544612318302289
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2018.12.017
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Duarte, Jefferson & Young, Lance, 2009. "Why is PIN priced?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 119-138, February.
    2. David Easley & Robert F. Engle & Maureen O'Hara & Liuren Wu, 2008. "Time-Varying Arrival Rates of Informed and Uninformed Trades," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 171-207, Spring.
    3. Akay, Ozgur (Ozzy) & Cyree, Ken B. & Griffiths, Mark D. & Winters, Drew B., 2012. "What does PIN identify? Evidence from the T-bill market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 29-46.
    4. Lai, Sandy & Ng, Lilian & Zhang, Bohui, 2014. "Does PIN affect equity prices around the world?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 178-195.
    5. Jackson, David, 2013. "Estimating PIN for firms with high levels of trading," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 116-120.
    6. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1987. "Price, trade size, and information in securities markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 69-90, September.
    7. William Lin, Hsiou-Wei & Ke, Wen-Chyan, 2011. "A computing bias in estimating the probability of informed trading," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 625-640, November.
    8. Ersan, Oguz & Alıcı, Aslı, 2016. "An unbiased computation methodology for estimating the probability of informed trading (PIN)," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 74-94.
    9. Aslan, Hadiye & Easley, David & Hvidkjaer, Soeren & O'Hara, Maureen, 2011. "The characteristics of informed trading: Implications for asset pricing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 782-801.
    10. David Easley & Marcos M. López de Prado & Maureen O'Hara, 2012. "Flow Toxicity and Liquidity in a High-frequency World," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(5), pages 1457-1493.
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    12. Ke, Wen-Chyan & Lin, Hsiou-Wei William, 2017. "An Improved Version of the Volume-Synchronized Probability of Informed Trading," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 6(2), pages 357-376, September.
    13. Quan Gan & Wang Chun Wei & David Johnstone, 2017. "Does the Probability of Informed Trading Model Fit Empirical Data?," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 5-35, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    PIN; Maximum likelihood; Scaled trade counts; Floating-point exception;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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