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ESG scores and target price accuracy: Evidence from sell-side recommendations in BRICS

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  • Umar, Muhammad
  • Mirza, Nawazish
  • Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas
  • Naqvi, Bushra

Abstract

ESG profiling of a firm reflects its exposure to various environmental, social, and governance factors, which influence the business dynamics and impact the valuation metrics. In this paper, we evaluate the relationship between ESG scores and the target price precision of sell-side analysts. We employ four different constructs of forecast accuracy on a comprehensive sample of firms with analyst coverage in the BRICS between 2011 and 2021. The results demonstrate that the ESG score positively impacts the target price accuracy, and firms with higher ESG scores have lower forecast errors. The findings remained robust even after segregating the sample based on buy, hold, and sell recommendations. Finally, we report that within ESG, environmental and governance factors largely explain the forecast accuracy while the social aspects were insignificant. The results also suggest that the precision of sell-side analysts is persistent across periods. These findings have important implications for investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Umar, Muhammad & Mirza, Nawazish & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Naqvi, Bushra, 2022. "ESG scores and target price accuracy: Evidence from sell-side recommendations in BRICS," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:84:y:2022:i:c:s1057521922003398
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2022.102389
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    Cited by:

    1. Lang, Qiaoqi & Ma, Feng & Mirza, Nawazish & Umar, Muhammad, 2023. "The interaction of climate risk and bank liquidity: An emerging market perspective for transitions to low carbon energy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    2. Chen, Zhonglu & Umar, Muhammad & Su, Chi-Wei & Mirza, Nawazish, 2023. "Renewable energy, credit portfolios and intermediation spread: Evidence from the banking sector in BRICS," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 561-566.
    3. Rahat, Birjees & Nguyen, Pascal, 2022. "Risk-adjusted investment performance of green and black portfolios and impact of toxic divestments in emerging markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    4. Zheng, ShiYong & Liu, Hua & Hafeez, Muhammad & Wang, Xiaofeng & Fahad, Shah & Yue, Xiao-Guang, 2023. "Testing the resource curse hypothesis: The dynamic roles of institutional quality, inflation and growth for Dragon," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    5. Dai, Zhifeng & Luo, Zhuang & Liu, Chang, 2023. "Dynamic volatility spillovers and investment strategies between crude oil, new energy, and resource related sectors," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    6. Rahat, Birjees & Nguyen, Pascal, 2023. "Does ESG performance impact credit portfolios? Evidence from lending to mineral resource firms in emerging markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    7. Wang, Xiang & Yin, Jian & Yang, Yao & Muda, Iskandar & Abduvaxitovna, Shamansurova Zilola & AlWadi, Belal Mahmoud & Castillo-Picon, Jorge & Abdul-Samad, Zulkiflee, 2023. "Relationship between the resource curse, Forest management and sustainable development and the importance of R&D Projects," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    8. Umar, Muhammad & Mirza, Nawazish & Ribeiro-Navarrete, Samuel, 2023. "The impact of financial restatements on sell-side recommendation accuracy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    9. Zhang, Can & Liang, Qian, 2023. "Natural resources and sustainable financial development: Evidence from South Asian economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    10. Shan, Shan & Mirza, Nawazish & Umar, Muhammad & Hasnaoui, Amir, 2023. "The nexus of sustainable development, blue financing, digitalization, and financial intermediation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ESG; Sell-side analysts; Forecast accuracy; Valuations; BRICS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G29 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Other
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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