IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v28y2013icp9-19.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Equity valuation models and target price accuracy in Europe: Evidence from equity reports

Author

Listed:
  • Imam, Shahed
  • Chan, Jacky
  • Shah, Syed Zulfiqar Ali

Abstract

This study examines whether European investment analysts prefer cash flow based valuation models over accrual based models, how accurate valuation models are and whether the use of cash flow based models (with or without accrual based models) improve forecast accuracy. We conduct a comprehensive content analysis of equity research reports for most of the firms on the components list of the Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 Index. We find that earnings multiples and the discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation models are the two most popular valuation models and the use of accrual based multiple alongside a cash flow based model improves the forecast error and this is in line with the intuition that accruals add value relevant information to cash flows. However, we also find that neither cash flow nor earnings multiples are superior to book value and return on equity (ROE) based models in terms of forecast error. Our results provide support for the use of book value and ROE based models which provide more precise forecasts and this, in turn, supports the use of accounting based models, i.e., a residual income model.

Suggested Citation

  • Imam, Shahed & Chan, Jacky & Shah, Syed Zulfiqar Ali, 2013. "Equity valuation models and target price accuracy in Europe: Evidence from equity reports," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 9-19.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:28:y:2013:i:c:p:9-19
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2013.02.008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521913000173
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.irfa.2013.02.008?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Boris Groysberg & Paul M. Healy & David A. Maber, 2011. "What Drives Sell‐Side Analyst Compensation at High‐Status Investment Banks?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(4), pages 969-1000, September.
    2. Yu, Hsin-Yi & Hsieh, Shu-Fan, 2010. "The effect of attention on buying behavior during a financial crisis: Evidence from the Taiwan stock exchange," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 270-280, September.
    3. Womack, Kent L, 1996. "Do Brokerage Analysts' Recommendations Have Investment Value?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 137-167, March.
    4. Akbar, Saeed & Shah, Syed Zulfiqar Ali & Stark, Andrew W., 2011. "The value relevance of cash flows, current accruals, and non-current accruals in the UK," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 311-319.
    5. La Porta, Rafael & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1997. "Legal Determinants of External Finance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1131-1150, July.
    6. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1998. "Law and Finance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(6), pages 1113-1155, December.
    7. Gaétan Breton & Richard Taffler, 2001. "Accounting information and analyst stock recommendation decisions: a content analysis approach," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 91-101.
    8. Asquith, Paul & Mikhail, Michael B. & Au, Andrea S., 2005. "Information content of equity analyst reports," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 245-282, February.
    9. Sanjeev Bhojraj & Charles M. C. Lee, 2002. "Who Is My Peer? A Valuation‐Based Approach to the Selection of Comparable Firms," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 407-439, May.
    10. Giraldo, Marcela, 2011. "Dynamics of analysts' coverage and the firms' information environment," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 345-354.
    11. Stephen H. Penman & Theodore Sougiannis, 1998. "A Comparison of Dividend, Cash Flow, and Earnings Approaches to Equity Valuation," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(3), pages 343-383, September.
    12. Shahed Imam & Richard Barker & Colin Clubb, 2008. "The Use of Valuation Models by UK Investment Analysts," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 503-535.
    13. Barth, Mary E. & Beaver, William H. & Landsman, Wayne R., 1998. "Relative valuation roles of equity book value and net income as a function of financial health," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 1-34, February.
    14. Papanastasopoulos, Georgios & Thomakos, Dimitrios & Wang, Tao, 2011. "Information in balance sheets for future stock returns: Evidence from net operating assets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 269-282.
    15. Stefano Bonini & Laura Zanetti & Roberto Bianchini & Antonio Salvi, 2010. "Target Price Accuracy in Equity Research," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(9‐10), pages 1177-1217, November.
    16. Miguel Arce & Araceli Mora, 2002. "Empirical evidence of the effect of European accounting differences on the stock market valuation of earnings and book value," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 573-599.
    17. Lev, B & Zarowin, P, 1999. "The boundaries of financial reporting and how to extend them," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 353-385.
    18. Jennifer L. Juergens & Laura Lindsey, 2009. "Getting Out Early: An Analysis of Market Making Activity at the Recommending Analyst's Firm," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2327-2359, October.
    19. Dechow, Patricia M., 1994. "Accounting earnings and cash flows as measures of firm performance : The role of accounting accruals," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 3-42, July.
    20. Alon Brav & Reuven Lehavy, 2003. "An Empirical Analysis of Analysts' Target Prices: Short-term Informativeness and Long-term Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1933-1968, October.
    21. DeFond, Mark L. & Hung, Mingyi, 2003. "An empirical analysis of analysts' cash flow forecasts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 73-100, April.
    22. Ball, Ray & Kothari, S. P. & Robin, Ashok, 2000. "Corrigendum to "The effect of international institutional factors on properties of accounting earnings"; [Journal of Accounting and Economics 29 (2000) 1-51]," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 241-241, October.
    23. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    24. Collins, Daniel W. & Maydew, Edward L. & Weiss, Ira S., 1997. "Changes in the value-relevance of earnings and book values over the past forty years," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 39-67, December.
    25. Alford, A & Jones, J & Leftwich, R & Zmijewski, M, 1993. "The Relative Informativeness Of Accounting Disclosures In Different Countries," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31, pages 183-223.
    26. Ali, A & Hwang, LS, 2000. "Country-specific factors related to financial reporting and the value relevance of accounting data," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 1-21.
    27. Efthimios Demirakos & Norman Strong & Martin Walker, 2010. "Does Valuation Model Choice Affect Target Price Accuracy?," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 35-72.
    28. Ball, Ray & Kothari, S. P. & Robin, Ashok, 2000. "The effect of international institutional factors on properties of accounting earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 1-51, February.
    29. Francis, J & Schipper, K, 1999. "Have financial statements lost their relevance?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 319-352.
    30. Richardson, Scott & Tuna, Irem & Wysocki, Peter, 2010. "Accounting anomalies and fundamental analysis: A review of recent research advances," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 410-454, December.
    31. Russell Lundholm & Terry O'Keefe, 2001. "Reconciling Value Estimates from the Discounted Cash Flow Model and the Residual Income Model," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(2), pages 311-335, June.
    32. Richard Barker, 2000. "FRS3 and analysts' use of earnings," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 95-109.
    33. Francis, J & Olsson, P & Oswald, DR, 2000. "Comparing the accuracy and explainability of dividend, free cash flow, and abnormal earnings equity value estimates," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 45-70.
    34. Brad Barber & Reuven Lehavy & Maureen McNichols & Brett Trueman, 2001. "Can Investors Profit from the Prophets? Security Analyst Recommendations and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 531-563, April.
    35. Jing Liu & Doron Nissim & Jacob Thomas, 2002. "Equity Valuation Using Multiples," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 135-172, March.
    36. Richard Barker, 1999. "The role of dividends in valuation models used by analysts and fund managers," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 195-218.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vidal, R. & Ribal, J., 2015. "Contrastes no parametricos de multiplos fundamentales frente a multiplos bursatiles en empresas alimentarias europeas," Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales, Spanish Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 15(01).
    2. Budi Frensidy & Ryan Joshua Pelealu & Robiyanto Robiyanto, 2020. "Analysis of Equity Valuation Models and Target Price Accuracy: An Evidence From Analyst Reports in Indonesia," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(4), pages 21582440209, October.
    3. Andersson, Patric & Hellman, Niclas, 2020. "Analysts’ evaluations of acquisitions: Swedish survey evidence on IFRS knowledge and the use of accounting information for valuation purposes," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    4. Umar, Muhammad & Mirza, Nawazish & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Naqvi, Bushra, 2022. "ESG scores and target price accuracy: Evidence from sell-side recommendations in BRICS," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    5. Chlomou, Grigoria & Demirakos, Efthimios, 2020. "How do financial analysts implement the Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation framework?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    6. Yanfu Li, 2021. "Improving The Accuracy Of Estimated Intrinsic Value Through Industry-Specific Valuation Models," Review of Business and Finance Studies, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 12(1), pages 79-89.
    7. Gülcan Erkilet & Gerrit Janke & Rainer Kasperzak, 2022. "How valuation approach choice affects financial analysts’ target price accuracy," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 92(5), pages 741-779, July.
    8. Markus Buxbaum & Wolfgang Schultze & Samuel L. Tiras, 2023. "Do analysts’ target prices stabilize the stock market?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 763-816, October.
    9. Chen-Yin Kuo, 2017. "Is the accuracy of stock value forecasting relevant to industry factors or firm-specific factors? An empirical study of the Ohlson model," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 195-225, July.
    10. Samie Ahmed Sayed, 2015. "Should Analysts Go by the Book? Valuation Models and Target Price Accuracy in an Emerging Market," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 16(5), pages 832-844, October.
    11. Yanfu Li, 2019. "Improving Analyst Target Price Performance Through Enhanced Valuation Techniques," Global Journal of Business Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 13(2), pages 1-12.
    12. Hiren Patel, 2021. "Target Price Achievement and Target Price Accuracy Models: An Analysis of Advisory Firms’ Recommendation for the Indian Banking Stocks," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 22(2), pages 459-473, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yanfu Li, 2019. "Improving Analyst Target Price Performance Through Enhanced Valuation Techniques," Global Journal of Business Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 13(2), pages 1-12.
    2. Budi Frensidy & Ryan Joshua Pelealu & Robiyanto Robiyanto, 2020. "Analysis of Equity Valuation Models and Target Price Accuracy: An Evidence From Analyst Reports in Indonesia," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(4), pages 21582440209, October.
    3. Dechow, Patricia & Ge, Weili & Schrand, Catherine, 2010. "Understanding earnings quality: A review of the proxies, their determinants and their consequences," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 344-401, December.
    4. Karel Janda, 2019. "Earnings Stability and Peer Company Selection for Multiple Based Indirect Valuation," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 69(1), pages 37-75, February.
    5. Karampinis, Nikolaos I. & Hevas, Dimosthenis L., 2011. "Mandating IFRS in an Unfavorable Environment: The Greek Experience," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 304-332, September.
    6. Hung, Mingyi, 2000. "Accounting standards and value relevance of financial statements: An international analysis," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 401-420, December.
    7. Igor Goncharov & Allan Hodgson, 2008. "Comprehensive Income In Europe: Valuation, Prediction And Conservative Issues," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 1(10), pages 1-1.
    8. Macías, Marta & Muiño, Flora, 2011. "Examining dual accounting systems in Europe," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 51-78, March.
    9. Marc Deloof & Wouter De Maeseneire & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2009. "How Do Investment Banks Value Initial Public Offerings (IPOs)?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1‐2), pages 130-160, January.
    10. Booth, G. Geoffrey & Junttila, Juha & Kallunki, Juha-Pekka & Rahiala, Markku & Sahlstrom, Petri, 2006. "How does the financial environment affect the stock market valuation of R&D spending?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 197-214, April.
    11. Osman Yukselturk & Jon Tucker, 2015. "The impact of analyst sentiment on UK stock recommendations and target prices," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(6-7), pages 869-904, December.
    12. Asokan Anandarajan & Bill Francis & Iftekhar Hasan & Kose John, 2011. "Value relevance of banks: global evidence," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 33-55, January.
    13. Ran Barniv & Mark Myring, 2006. "An International Analysis of Historical and Forecast Earnings in Accounting‐Based Valuation Models," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(7‐8), pages 1087-1109, September.
    14. Veith, Stefan & Werner, Jörg R., 2014. "Comparative Value Relevance Studies: Country Differences Versus Specification Effects," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 301-330.
    15. Gülcan Erkilet & Gerrit Janke & Rainer Kasperzak, 2022. "How valuation approach choice affects financial analysts’ target price accuracy," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 92(5), pages 741-779, July.
    16. Peter F. Pope, 2003. "Discussion of Disclosure Practices, Enforcement of Accounting Standards, and Analysts' Forecast Accuracy: An International Study," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 273-283, May.
    17. Bushman, Robert M. & Smith, Abbie J., 2001. "Financial accounting information and corporate governance," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1-3), pages 237-333, December.
    18. Keryn Chalmers & Greg Clinch & Jayne M Godfrey, 2011. "Changes in value relevance of accounting information upon IFRS adoption: Evidence from Australia," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 36(2), pages 151-173, August.
    19. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    20. Markus Buxbaum & Wolfgang Schultze & Samuel L. Tiras, 2023. "Do analysts’ target prices stabilize the stock market?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 763-816, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Accuracy; Analysts; Analysts' reports; Valuation models; Target price;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:28:y:2013:i:c:p:9-19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.