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Does Valuation Model Choice Affect Target Price Accuracy?

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  • Efthimios Demirakos
  • Norman Strong
  • Martin Walker

Abstract

We investigate whether the choice of valuation model affects the forecast accuracy of the target prices that investment analysts issue in their equity research reports, controlling for factors that influence this choice. We examine 490 equity research reports from international investment houses for 94 UK-listed firms published over the period July 2002-June 2004. We use four measures of accuracy: (i) whether the target price is met during the 12-month forecast horizon (met_in); (ii) whether the target price is met on the last day of the 12-month forecast horizon (met_end); (iii) the absolute forecast error (abs_err); and (iv) the forecast error of target prices that are not met at the end of the 12-month forecast horizon (miss_err). Based on met_in and abs_err, price-to-earnings (PE) outperform discounted cash flow (DCF) models, while based on met_end and miss_err the difference in valuation model performance is insignificant. However, after controlling for variables that capture the difficulty of the valuation task, the performance of DCF models improves in all specifications and, based on miss_err, they outperform PE models. These findings are robust to standard controls for selection bias.

Suggested Citation

  • Efthimios Demirakos & Norman Strong & Martin Walker, 2010. "Does Valuation Model Choice Affect Target Price Accuracy?," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 35-72.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:euract:v:19:y:2010:i:1:p:35-72
    DOI: 10.1080/09638180902990630
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Anesten, Sebastian & Möller, Niclas & Skogsvik, Kenth, 2015. "The Accuracy of Parsimonious Equity Valuation Models - Empirical tests of the Dividend Discount, Residual Income and Abnormal Earnings Growth model," SSE Working Paper Series in Business Administration 2015:3, Stockholm School of Economics.
    2. Vidal, R. & Ribal, J., 2015. "Contrastes no parametricos de multiplos fundamentales frente a multiplos bursatiles en empresas alimentarias europeas," Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales, Spanish Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 15(1).
    3. repec:spr:reaccs:v:22:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s11142-017-9413-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Chen, An-Sing & Chang, Chong-Chuo & Cheng, Lee-Young & Tu, Hsing-Yu, 2016. "Do analysts cater to investor beliefs via target prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 232-252.
    5. Elisa Cavezzali & Ugo Rigoni, 2013. "Financial Analysts' Forecast Accuracy: Do valuation methods matter?," Working Papers 9, Department of Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia.
    6. Denis Cormier & Pascale Lapointe-Antunes & Bruce J. McConomy, 2014. "Forecasts in IPO Prospectuses: The Effect of Corporate Governance on Earnings Management," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1-2), pages 100-127, January.
    7. Imam, Shahed & Chan, Jacky & Shah, Syed Zulfiqar Ali, 2013. "Equity valuation models and target price accuracy in Europe: Evidence from equity reports," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 9-19.
    8. Ilham Boularhmane & Rajae Aboulaich, 2016. "Valuation of Quarterly Stock Prices: Applying Ethical Principles to Discounted Cash Flow Method," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 1254-1261.

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