IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Do financial analysts' long-term growth forecasts matter? Evidence from stock recommendations and career outcomes

  • Jung, Boochun
  • Shane, Philip B.
  • Sunny Yang, Yanhua
Registered author(s):

    Prior literature portrays long-term growth (LTG) forecasts as nonsensical from a valuation perspective. Instead, we hypothesize that LTG forecasts signal high effort and ability to analyze firms' long-term prospects. We document stronger market response to stock recommendation revisions of analysts who publish accompanying LTG forecasts. We also hypothesize and find that these analysts are less likely to leave the profession or move to smaller brokerage houses. Consistent with Reg. FD's intention to promote fundamental analysis of long-term earnings prospects, post-Reg. FD observations drive our results. Overall, we identify previously undocumented benefits accruing to analysts who publish LTG forecasts.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165410111000905
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Accounting and Economics.

    Volume (Year): 53 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 55-76

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:eee:jaecon:v:53:y:2012:i:1:p:55-76
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jae

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. DeFond, Mark L. & Hung, Mingyi, 2003. "An empirical analysis of analysts' cash flow forecasts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 73-100, April.
    2. Gintschel, Andreas & Markov, Stanimir, 2004. "The effectiveness of Regulation FD," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 293-314, September.
    3. Warren Bailey & Haitao Li & Connie X. Mao & Rui Zhong, 2003. "Regulation Fair Disclosure and Earnings Information: Market, Analyst, and Corporate Responses," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2487-2514, December.
    4. Bin Ke & Yong Yu, 2006. "The Effect of Issuing Biased Earnings Forecasts on Analysts' Access to Management and Survival," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(5), pages 965-999, December.
    5. La Porta, Rafael, 1996. " Expectations and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1715-42, December.
    6. Clement, Michael B., 1999. "Analyst forecast accuracy: Do ability, resources, and portfolio complexity matter?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 285-303, July.
    7. Jacob, John & Lys, Thomas Z. & Neale, Margaret A., 1999. "Expertise in forecasting performance of security analysts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 51-82, November.
    8. Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Woojin Kim, 2010. "Do Analysts Herd? An Analysis of Recommendations and Market Reactions," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 901-937, February.
    9. Asquith, Paul & Mikhail, Michael B. & Au, Andrea S., 2005. "Information content of equity analyst reports," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 245-282, February.
    10. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip B., 2008. "Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations: A Review of the Research," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 2(4), pages 311-421, September.
    11. Louis K. C. Chan & Jason Karceski & Josef Lakonishok, 2003. "The Level and Persistence of Growth Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 643-684, 04.
    12. Stefano Bonini & Laura Zanetti & Roberto Bianchini & Antonio Salvi, 2010. "Target Price Accuracy in Equity Research," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(9-10), pages 1177-1217, November/.
    13. Wu, Joanna Shuang & Zang, Amy Y., 2009. "What determine financial analysts' career outcomes during mergers?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1-2), pages 59-86, March.
    14. Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik, 2003. "Analyzing the Analysts: Career Concerns and Biased Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 313-351, 02.
    15. Cowen, Amanda & Groysberg, Boris & Healy, Paul, 2006. "Which types of analyst firms are more optimistic?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 119-146, April.
    16. Barber, Brad M. & Lehavy, Reuven & Trueman, Brett, 2007. "Comparing the stock recommendation performance of investment banks and independent research firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 490-517, August.
    17. Alon Brav & Reuven Lehavy, 2003. "An Empirical Analysis of Analysts' Target Prices: Short-term Informativeness and Long-term Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1933-1968, October.
    18. Lin, Hsiou-wei & McNichols, Maureen F., 1998. "Underwriting relationships, analysts' earnings forecasts and investment recommendations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 101-127, February.
    19. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1997. "Industry costs of equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 153-193, February.
    20. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, 09.
    21. Eleswarapu, Venkat R. & Thompson, Rex & Venkataraman, Kumar, 2004. "The Impact of Regulation Fair Disclosure: Trading Costs and Information Asymmetry," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(02), pages 209-225, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jaecon:v:53:y:2012:i:1:p:55-76. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.