IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/corfin/v64y2020ics0929119920301139.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Anti-selective disclosure regulation and analyst forecast accuracy and usefulness

Author

Listed:
  • Cowan, Arnold R.
  • Salotti, Valentina

Abstract

We investigate regulations intended to stop managers from privately disclosing corporate information to analysts in a setting with enhanced potential to isolate regulatory effects: the European Union (EU) Market Abuse Directive (MAD), a common regulation implemented by member states with varying sanctions and enforcement resources. Following the implementation of MAD in a country, analyst forecasts become more accurate, with relatively little of the effect attributable to increased voluntary public disclosure by covered firms. The effect of MAD on analyst accuracy is stronger in countries with more stringent enforcement and sanction systems. Although the improvement in accuracy is associated with the implementation of MAD alone, stock prices do not respond more strongly to analyst forecast releases until after market-trading enforcement improves under subsequent EU legislation (MiFID).

Suggested Citation

  • Cowan, Arnold R. & Salotti, Valentina, 2020. "Anti-selective disclosure regulation and analyst forecast accuracy and usefulness," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:corfin:v:64:y:2020:i:c:s0929119920301139
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2020.101669
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0929119920301139
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2020.101669?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francis, Jennifer & Nanda, Dhananjay & Wang, Xin, 2006. "Re-examining the effects of regulation fair disclosure using foreign listed firms to control for concurrent shocks," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 271-292, September.
    2. Anup Agrawal & Sahiba Chadha & Mark A. Chen, 2006. "Who Is Afraid of Reg FD? The Behavior and Performance of Sell-Side Analysts Following the SEC's Fair Disclosure Rules," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(6), pages 2811-2834, November.
    3. Mehran, Hamid & Stulz, Rene M., 2007. "The economics of conflicts of interest in financial institutions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 267-296, August.
    4. Warren Bailey & Haitao Li & Connie X. Mao & Rui Zhong, 2003. "Regulation Fair Disclosure and Earnings Information: Market, Analyst, and Corporate Responses," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2487-2514, December.
    5. George J. Stigler, 1971. "The Theory of Economic Regulation," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 2(1), pages 3-21, Spring.
    6. Gomes, Armando & Gorton, Gary & Madureira, Leonardo, 2007. "SEC Regulation Fair Disclosure, information, and the cost of capital," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 300-334, June.
    7. Jackson, Howell E. & Roe, Mark J., 2009. "Public and private enforcement of securities laws: Resource-based evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 207-238, August.
    8. Givoly, Dan & Lakonishok, Josef, 1980. "Financial analysts' forecasts of earnings : Their value to investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 221-233, September.
    9. Green, T. Clifton & Jame, Russell & Markov, Stanimir & Subasi, Musa, 2014. "Access to management and the informativeness of analyst research," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 239-255.
    10. Beyer, Anne & Cohen, Daniel A. & Lys, Thomas Z. & Walther, Beverly R., 2010. "The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 296-343, December.
    11. Eugene Soltes, 2014. "Private Interaction Between Firm Management and Sell‐Side Analysts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 245-272, March.
    12. Cameron, A. Colin & Gelbach, Jonah B. & Miller, Douglas L., 2011. "Robust Inference With Multiway Clustering," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(2), pages 238-249.
    13. Asquith, Paul & Mikhail, Michael B. & Au, Andrea S., 2005. "Information content of equity analyst reports," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 245-282, February.
    14. Mikhail, MB & Walther, BR & Willis, RH, 1997. "Do security analysts improve their performance with experience?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35, pages 131-157.
    15. Harold Mulherin, J., 2007. "Measuring the costs and benefits of regulation: Conceptual issues in securities markets," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 421-437, June.
    16. John Capstaff & Krishna Paudyal & William Rees, 2001. "A Comparative Analysis of Earnings Forecasts in Europe," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5‐6), pages 531-562, June.
    17. Kross, William J. & Suk, Inho, 2012. "Does Regulation FD work? Evidence from analysts' reliance on public disclosure," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 225-248.
    18. Brian J. Bushee & Michael J. Jung & Gregory S. Miller, 2011. "Conference Presentations and the Disclosure Milieu," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(5), pages 1163-1192, December.
    19. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez‐De‐Silanes & Andrei Shleifer, 2006. "What Works in Securities Laws?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 1-32, February.
    20. Hans B. Christensen & Luzi Hail & Christian Leuz, 2016. "Capital-Market Effects of Securities Regulation: Prior Conditions, Implementation, and Enforcement," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(11), pages 2885-2924.
    21. Trueman, Brett, 1994. "Analyst Forecasts and Herding Behavior," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(1), pages 97-124.
    22. Sofia Johan, 2008. "Global Market Surveillance," American Law and Economics Review, American Law and Economics Association, vol. 10(2), pages 454-506.
    23. Ergungor, Ozgur E. & Madureira, Leonardo & Nayar, Nandkumar & Singh, Ajai K., 2015. "Lending relationships and analysts’ forecasts," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 71-88.
    24. Partha S. Mohanram & Shyam V. Sunder, 2006. "How Has Regulation FD Affected the Operations of Financial Analysts?," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(2), pages 491-525, June.
    25. Karpoff, Jonathan M & Lott, John R, Jr, 1993. "The Reputational Penalty Firms Bear from Committing Criminal Fraud," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(2), pages 757-802, October.
    26. Srinidhi, Bin & Leung, Sidney & Jaggi, Bikki, 2009. "Differential effects of regulation FD on short- and long-term analyst forecasts," Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 401-418, September.
    27. Diamond, Douglas W & Verrecchia, Robert E, 1991. "Disclosure, Liquidity, and the Cost of Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1325-1359, September.
    28. Clement, Michael B., 1999. "Analyst forecast accuracy: Do ability, resources, and portfolio complexity matter?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 285-303, July.
    29. Scott Findlay & Prem G. Mathew, 2006. "An Examination of the Differential Impact of Regulation FD on Analysts' Forecast Accuracy," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 9-31, February.
    30. Bas ter Weel & T. Prevoo, 2010. "The effects of a change in market abuse regulation on abnormal returns and volumes: Evidence from the Amsterdam stock market," CPB Discussion Paper 154, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    31. Tyas Prevoo & Bas Weel, 2010. "The Effects of a Change in Market Abuse Regulation on Abnormal Returns and Volumes: Evidence from the Amsterdam Stock Market," De Economist, Springer, vol. 158(3), pages 237-293, September.
    32. Gintschel, Andreas & Markov, Stanimir, 2004. "The effectiveness of Regulation FD," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 293-314, September.
    33. Aghanya, Daniel & Agarwal, Vineet & Poshakwale, Sunil, 2020. "Market in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID), stock price informativeness and liquidity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    34. Anchada Charoenrook & Craig M. Lewis, 2009. "Information, Selective Disclosure, and Analyst Behavior," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 38(1), pages 39-57, March.
    35. Bessembinder, Hendrik, 2003. "Trade Execution Costs and Market Quality after Decimalization," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(4), pages 747-777, December.
    36. Utpal Bhattacharya & Hazem Daouk, 2002. "The World Price of Insider Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 75-108, February.
    37. Ole‐Kristian Hope, 2003. "Disclosure Practices, Enforcement of Accounting Standards, and Analysts' Forecast Accuracy: An International Study," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 235-272, May.
    38. Grace Pownall & Maria Wieczynska, 2018. "Deviations from the Mandatory Adoption of IFRS in the European Union: Implementation, Enforcement, Incentives, and Compliance," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(2), pages 1029-1066, June.
    39. Cumming, Douglas & Johan, Sofia, 2019. "Capital-market effects of securities regulation: Prior conditions, implementation, and enforcement revisited," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    40. Pervin K. Shroff & Ramgopal Venkataraman & Baohua Xin, 2014. "Timeliness of Analysts' Forecasts: The Information Content of Delayed Forecasts," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(1), pages 202-229, March.
    41. Collver, Charles D., 2007. "Is there less informed trading after regulation fair disclosure?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 270-281, June.
    42. Clifford W. Smith, 1992. "Economics And Ethics: The Case Of Salomon Brothers," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 5(2), pages 23-28, June.
    43. M. Dubois & L. Fresard & P. Dumontier, 2014. "Regulating Conflicts of Interest: The Effect of Sanctions and Enforcement," Post-Print halshs-01025922, HAL.
    44. Michel Dubois & Laurent Fresard & Pascal Dumontier, 2014. "Regulating Conflicts of Interest: The Effect of Sanctions and Enforcement," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 489-526.
    45. Lys, Thomas & Sohn, Sungkyu, 1990. "The association between revisions of financial analysts' earnings forecasts and security-price changes," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 341-363, December.
    46. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    47. Orie E. Barron & Donal Byard & Charles Kile & Edward J. Riedl, 2002. "High‐Technology Intangibles and Analysts’ Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 289-312, May.
    48. Campbell, Cynthia J. & Cowan, Arnold R. & Salotti, Valentina, 2010. "Multi-country event-study methods," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 3078-3090, December.
    49. Sami Keskek & Linda A. Myers & Thomas C. Omer & Marjorie K. Shelley, 2017. "The Effects of Disclosure and Analyst Regulations on the Relevance of Analyst Characteristics for Explaining Analyst Forecast Accuracy," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(5-6), pages 780-811, May.
    50. Barber, Brad M. & De George, Emmanuel T. & Lehavy, Reuven & Trueman, Brett, 2013. "The earnings announcement premium around the globe," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 118-138.
    51. Eleswarapu, Venkat R. & Thompson, Rex & Venkataraman, Kumar, 2004. "The Impact of Regulation Fair Disclosure: Trading Costs and Information Asymmetry," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(2), pages 209-225, June.
    52. Givoly, Dan & Lakonishok, Josef, 1979. "The information content of financial analysts' forecasts of earnings: Some evidence on semi-strong inefficiency," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 165-185, December.
    53. Jonathan B. Cohn & Jennifer L. Juergens, 2014. "How Much Do Analysts Influence Each Other's Forecasts?," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(03), pages 1-35.
    54. Cumming, Douglas & Johan, Sofia & Li, Dan, 2011. "Exchange trading rules and stock market liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 651-671, March.
    55. Ivkovic, Zoran & Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 2004. "The timing and value of forecast and recommendation revisions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 433-463, September.
    56. Stickel, Scott E, 1992. "Reputation and Performance among Security Analysts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1811-1836, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zuobao Wei & Yicheng Zhu, 2023. "Does religiosity improve analyst forecast accuracy?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 915-948, April.
    2. El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Wei, Zuobao & Zhu, Yicheng, 2023. "Does public corruption affect analyst forecast quality?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christian Leuz & Peter D. Wysocki, 2016. "The Economics of Disclosure and Financial Reporting Regulation: Evidence and Suggestions for Future Research," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2), pages 525-622, May.
    2. Beyer, Anne & Cohen, Daniel A. & Lys, Thomas Z. & Walther, Beverly R., 2010. "The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 296-343, December.
    3. Dambra, Michael & Field, Laura Casares & Gustafson, Matthew T. & Pisciotta, Kevin, 2018. "The consequences to analyst involvement in the IPO process: Evidence surrounding the JOBS Act," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 302-330.
    4. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    5. Harold Mulherin, J., 2007. "Measuring the costs and benefits of regulation: Conceptual issues in securities markets," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 421-437, June.
    6. Brian Gibbons & Peter Iliev & Jonathan Kalodimos, 2021. "Analyst Information Acquisition via EDGAR," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(2), pages 769-793, February.
    7. Christensen, Hans B. & Hail, Luzi & Leuz, Christian, 2010. "Capital-Market Effects of Securities Regulation: The Role of Implementation and Enforcement," Working Papers 241, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    8. Mehran, Hamid & Stulz, Rene M., 2007. "The economics of conflicts of interest in financial institutions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 267-296, August.
    9. Paulo Pereira Silva & Isabel Vieira, 2022. "On the Effects of Capital Markets’ Regulation on Price Informativeness: an Assessment of EU Market Abuse Directive," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 36(2), pages 125-157, June.
    10. Hueiling Chen & Cheng-Tsu Huang & Hsiou-Wei W. Lin, 2016. "Changes in analyst following for less covered firms accompanying Regulation Fair Disclosure: the roles of ability and industry experience," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 519-541, April.
    11. Gomes, Armando & Gorton, Gary & Madureira, Leonardo, 2007. "SEC Regulation Fair Disclosure, information, and the cost of capital," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 300-334, June.
    12. Cristi Gleason & Zhejia Ling & Rong Zhao, 2020. "Selective disclosure and the role of Form 8‐K in the post‐Reg FD era," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(3-4), pages 365-396, March.
    13. AltInkIlIç, Oya & Hansen, Robert S., 2009. "On the information role of stock recommendation revisions," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 17-36, October.
    14. Yi Dong & Nan Hu & Xu Li & Ling Liu, 2017. "Analyst Firm Coverage and Forecast Accuracy: The Effect of Regulation Fair Disclosure," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 53(4), pages 450-484, December.
    15. Oya Altınkılıç & Vadim S. Balashov & Robert S. Hansen, 2013. "Are Analysts' Forecasts Informative to the General Public?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(11), pages 2550-2565, November.
    16. Edward Lawrence & Gordon Karels & Arun Prakash & Siddharth Shankar, 2011. "Effect of regulation FD on disclosures of information by firms," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(13), pages 979-996.
    17. Leonardo Fernandez, 2012. "Price Discovery, Investor Distraction and Analyst Recommendations Under Continuous Disclosure Requirements in Australia," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2012, January-A.
    18. Allen H. Huang & Reuven Lehavy & Amy Y. Zang & Rong Zheng, 2018. "Analyst Information Discovery and Interpretation Roles: A Topic Modeling Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(6), pages 2833-2855, June.
    19. Tim Martens & Christoph J. Sextroh, 2021. "Analyst Coverage Overlaps and Interfirm Information Spillovers," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 1425-1480, September.
    20. Justin Birru & Sinan Gokkaya & Xi Liu & René M. Stulz, 2022. "Are Analyst Short‐Term Trade Ideas Valuable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(3), pages 1829-1875, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market abuse directive; Financial analysts; Sell-side analysts; Selective disclosure; IBES; Earnings announcements; Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID); Regulation Fair Disclosure (Reg FD);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:corfin:v:64:y:2020:i:c:s0929119920301139. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jcorpfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.