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Seasonality in outliers of daily stock returns: A tail that wags the dog?

  • Galai, Dan
  • Kedar-Levy, Haim
  • Schreiber, Ben Z.
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    We document significant intra-year seasonality in outliers of S&P500 daily rates of return. Controlling for outliers in dummy regressions reveals that both the January and Monday effects turn from insignificant to highly significant. Mean daily return on January doubles and becomes significantly higher than all other months of the year, and Monday's mean return turns significantly positive and higher than other days of the week. The recently documented Halloween effect turns significant only after controlling for outliers as June, August, and September turn out to be months with remarkably low rates of returns. Being random, outliers cannot serve as instrumental variables for designing trading rules, yet, their impact on options pricing through the increase in volatility, may be applied for profitable options strategies.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6W4W-4RYV28P-1/2/5e4b76edd598452b05110cf14ec39a40
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Review of Financial Analysis.

    Volume (Year): 17 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 5 (December)
    Pages: 784-792

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:17:y:2008:i:5:p:784-792
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166

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    1. Marshall Blume & Robert Stambaugh, . "Biases in Computed Returns: An Application to the Size Effect (Revision of 2-83)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 11-83, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    2. French, Kenneth R., 1980. "Stock returns and the weekend effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 55-69, March.
    3. Blume, Marshall E. & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1983. "Biases in computed returns : An application to the size effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 387-404, November.
    4. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    5. Keim, Donald B., 1983. "Size-related anomalies and stock return seasonality : Further empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 13-32, June.
    6. G. William Schwert, 2002. "Anomalies and Market Efficiency," NBER Working Papers 9277, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Connolly, Robert A., 1989. "An Examination of the Robustness of the Weekend Effect," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(02), pages 133-169, June.
    8. Reinganum, Marc R., 1983. "The anomalous stock market behavior of small firms in January : Empirical tests for tax-loss selling effects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 89-104, June.
    9. Gibbons, Michael R & Hess, Patrick, 1981. "Day of the Week Effects and Asset Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 579-96, October.
    10. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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