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A decision analysis of the U.S. breeder reactor program

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  • Manne, Alan S.
  • Richels, Richard G.

Abstract

Past modelling efforts have failed to reach a consensus on breeder R & D strategy. These failures have led some to question the usefulness of benefit-cost analysis for a problem as complex and as politicized as this one has become. Our paper examines some of the major weaknesses of past benefit-cost analyses and then reformulates the breeder investment decision in a decision tree framework. Decision analysis is used to evaluate alternative R & D strategies that range from accelerating the current effort to abandoning the entire program.

Suggested Citation

  • Manne, Alan S. & Richels, Richard G., 1978. "A decision analysis of the U.S. breeder reactor program," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 3(6), pages 747-767.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:3:y:1978:i:6:p:747-767
    DOI: 10.1016/0360-5442(78)90042-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alan S. Manne, 1974. "Waiting for the Breeder," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 41(5), pages 47-65.
    2. Alan S. Manne, 1976. "ETA: A Model for Energy Technology Assessment," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 7(2), pages 379-406, Autumn.
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    Cited by:

    1. Santen, Nidhi R. & Anadon, Laura Diaz, 2016. "Balancing solar PV deployment and RD&D: A comprehensive framework for managing innovation uncertainty in electricity technology investment planning," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 560-569.
    2. Bai, Yang & Meng, Jie & Meng, Fanyi & Fang, Guochang, 2020. "Stochastic analysis of a shale gas investment strategy for coping with production uncertainties," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    3. Zhou, P. & Ang, B.W. & Poh, K.L., 2006. "Decision analysis in energy and environmental modeling: An update," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(14), pages 2604-2622.

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