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The future of the European natural gas market: A quantitative assessment

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  • Aguilera, Roberto F.

Abstract

The debate over the availability of conventional natural gas has been nearly as strong as that for conventional oil. In Europe, the debate is strengthened due to the region’s dependence on natural gas from outside countries. In addition, concern has been expressed by some energy experts in recent years about an imminent shortage of natural gas from Europe, caused supposedly by dwindling natural gas resources. Thus, the purpose of this analysis is to address the concern by assessing the availability of natural gas in the region. This is done by estimating a cumulative availability curve showing natural gas endowment versus production costs. The findings indicate that natural gas in Europe is more available and economic than often assumed. Increased research and development of this potential could help increase energy security in the region.

Suggested Citation

  • Aguilera, Roberto F., 2010. "The future of the European natural gas market: A quantitative assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 3332-3339.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:35:y:2010:i:8:p:3332-3339
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2010.04.019
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Roberto F. Aguilera & Roderick G. Eggert & Lagos C.C. Gustavo & John E. Tilton, 2009. "Depletion and the Future Availability of Petroleum Resources," The Energy Journal, , vol. 30(1), pages 141-174, January.
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    1. Hauser, Philipp & Heinrichs, Heidi U. & Gillessen, Bastian & Müller, Theresa, 2018. "Implications of diversification strategies in the European natural gas market for the German energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 442-454.
    2. Aguilera, Roberto F. & Ripple, Ronald D., 2012. "Technological progress and the availability of European oil and gas resources," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 387-392.
    3. Crow, Daniel J.G. & Giarola, Sara & Hawkes, Adam D., 2018. "A dynamic model of global natural gas supply," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 452-469.
    4. Popov, Maxim & Madlener, Reinhard, 2014. "Backtesting and Evaluation of Different Trading Schemes for the Portfolio Management of Natural Gas," FCN Working Papers 5/2014, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    5. Jakobsson, Kristofer & Bentley, Roger & Söderbergh, Bengt & Aleklett, Kjell, 2012. "The end of cheap oil: Bottom-up economic and geologic modeling of aggregate oil production curves," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 860-870.

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