IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v328y2025ics0360544225022856.html

Study on short-term natural gas system resilience under import shortage shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Song, Mei
  • Wang, Zisha
  • Chi, Lixun
  • Wang, Rui
  • Zhu, Mingming

Abstract

Natural gas has low-carbon attributes and plays an important role in China’s energy security as a transitional energy source. However, a series of problems, such as high external dependence, seriously threaten China’s natural gas supply security. This study constructs a multi-scenario system dynamics model from a dynamic perspective, analyzes the changes in the resilience of the natural gas system under 39%, 56%, and 100% disruptions in liquefied natural gas imports, compares the improvement effects of different emergency measures, and proposes a path to enhance the resilience of China’s natural gas system. The research conclusions are: China’s natural gas system can recover from only a 39% shortage. The improvement effect of dual measures on the natural gas system is significantly better than that of single measures, in the order of “dual measures > demand compression only > emergency supply only.” An increase in the capacity of liquefied natural gas and underground gas storage should take into account their tank and reserve capacity. A simultaneous increase in liquefied natural gas tank capacity and emergency gasification capability is key to improving China’s gas system resilience under a scenario of extreme shortage.

Suggested Citation

  • Song, Mei & Wang, Zisha & Chi, Lixun & Wang, Rui & Zhu, Mingming, 2025. "Study on short-term natural gas system resilience under import shortage shocks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:328:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225022856
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.136643
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544225022856
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2025.136643?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, Qunwei & Zhou, Bo & Zhang, Cheng & Zhou, Dequn, 2021. "Do energy subsidies reduce fiscal and household non-energy expenditures? A regional heterogeneity assessment on coal-to-gas program in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    2. repec:aen:eeepjl:eeep9-1-mulder is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Qian, Lanping & Bai, Yang & Wang, Wenya & Meng, Fanyi & Chen, Zhisong, 2023. "Natural gas crisis, system resilience and emergency responses: A China case," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    4. Işık, Cem & Kuziboev, Bekhzod & Ongan, Serdar & Saidmamatov, Olimjon & Mirkhoshimova, Mokhirakhon & Rajabov, Alibek, 2024. "The volatility of global energy uncertainty: Renewable alternatives," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 297(C).
    5. Wang, Qi & Suo, Ruixia & Han, Qiutong, 2024. "A study on natural gas consumption forecasting in China using the LMDI-PSO-LSTM model: Factor decomposition and scenario analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    6. Fenyu, Zeng & Jiamei, Li, 2024. "Research on EU natural gas security and countermeasures based on two-dimensional cloud model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    7. Rehman, Aniqa & Zhu, Jun-Jie & Segovia, Javier & Anderson, Paul R., 2022. "Assessment of deep learning and classical statistical methods on forecasting hourly natural gas demand at multiple sites in Spain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PA).
    8. Monforti, F. & Szikszai, A., 2010. "A MonteCarlo approach for assessing the adequacy of the European gas transmission system under supply crisis conditions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2486-2498, May.
    9. Tong, Yuan & Wan, Ning & Dai, Xingyu & Bi, Xiaoyi & Wang, Qunwei, 2022. "China's energy stock market jumps: To what extent does the COVID-19 pandemic play a part?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    10. Cabalu, Helen, 2010. "Indicators of security of natural gas supply in Asia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 218-225, January.
    11. Bai, Mingqi & Liu, Shuqi & Qi, Meng & Liu, Shangzhi & Shu, Chi-Min & Feng, Wei & Liu, Yi, 2024. "Optimization of wind-solar hybrid system based on energy stability of multiple time scales and uncertainty of renewable resources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    12. Nikas, Alexandros & Frilingou, Natasha & Heussaff, Conall & Fragkos, Panagiotis & Mittal, Shivika & Sampedro, Jon & Giarola, Sara & Sasse, Jan-Philipp & Rinaldi, Lorenzo & Doukas, Haris & Gambhir, Aja, 2024. "Three different directions in which the European Union could replace Russian natural gas," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    13. Sesini, Marzia & Giarola, Sara & Hawkes, Adam D., 2022. "Solidarity measures: Assessment of strategic gas storage on EU regional risk groups natural gas supply resilience," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    14. Sesini, Marzia & Giarola, Sara & Hawkes, Adam D., 2020. "The impact of liquefied natural gas and storage on the EU natural gas infrastructure resilience," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    15. Kong, Zhaoyang & Lu, Xi & Jiang, Qingzhe & Dong, Xiucheng & Liu, Guixian & Elbot, Noah & Zhang, Zhonghua & Chen, Shi, 2019. "Assessment of import risks for natural gas and its implication for optimal importing strategies: A case study of China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 11-18.
    16. Melikoglu, Mehmet, 2013. "Vision 2023: Forecasting Turkey's natural gas demand between 2013 and 2030," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 393-400.
    17. Ye, Ruike & Zhou, Yunheng & Chen, Jiawei & Tu, Kevin, 2021. "Natural gas security evaluation from a supply vs. demand perspective: A quantitative application of four As," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    18. Peng, Panyu & Li, Mingyang & Ao, Yibin & Deng, Shulin & Martek, Igor, 2024. "Spatial-temporal evolution of driving mechanisms of city resilience: A Sichuan-based case study," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    19. Ding, Yueting & Chen, Sai & Zheng, Yilei & Chai, Shanglei & Nie, Rui, 2022. "Resilience assessment of China's natural gas system under supply shortages: A system dynamics approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nikou, Vasilis, 2025. "From exit to exposure: Gas import shocks and macroeconomic asymmetries in the wake of Europe's coal phaseout," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 335(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Qian, Lanping & Bai, Yang & Wang, Wenya & Meng, Fanyi & Chen, Zhisong, 2023. "Natural gas crisis, system resilience and emergency responses: A China case," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    2. Song, Mei & Chen, Chen & Chi, Lixun & Pei, Ziping & Peng, Xiaoqi & Wang, Enxiu, 2026. "Study on China's long-term natural gas system resilience under import channel disruption," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 344(C).
    3. Zhu, Min & Dong, Peiwu & Ju, Yanbing & Fu, Zhengtang, 2024. "Assessing economies' resilience of international liquefied natural gas trade network in the presence of the ripple effect," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    4. Kangyin Dong & Yalin Han & Yue Dou & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2022. "Moving toward carbon neutrality: Assessing natural gas import security and its impact on CO2 emissions," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(4), pages 751-770, August.
    5. Zhu, Jianhua & Peng, Yan & Gong, Zhuping & Sun, Yanming & Lai, Chaoan & Wang, Qing & Zhu, Xiaojun & Gan, Zhongxue, 2019. "Dynamic analysis of SNG and PNG supply: The stability and robustness view #," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 717-729.
    6. Zhaoming Yang & Qi Xiang & Yuxuan He & Shiliang Peng & Michael Havbro Faber & Enrico Zio & Lili Zuo & Huai Su & Jinjun Zhang, 2023. "Resilience of Natural Gas Pipeline System: A Review and Outlook," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-19, August.
    7. Lin Wang & Yuping Xing, 2022. "Risk Assessment of a Coupled Natural Gas and Electricity Market Considering Dual Interactions: A System Dynamics Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-18, December.
    8. Xie, Minghua & Min, Jialin & Fang, Xingming & Sun, Chuanwang & Zhang, Zhen, 2022. "Policy selection based on China's natural gas security evaluation and comparison," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    9. Jiang, Qiangqiang & Cai, Baoping & Zhang, Yanping & Xie, Min & Liu, Cuiwei, 2023. "Resilience assessment methodology of natural gas network system under random leakage," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    10. Li, Jiaman & Dong, Xiucheng & Jiang, Qingzhe & Dong, Kangyin & Liu, Guixian, 2021. "Natural gas trade network of countries and regions along the belt and road: Where to go in the future?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    11. Xiao, Ludi & Zhou, Peng & Bai, Yang & Zhang, Kai, 2024. "Modeling the dynamic allocation problem of multi-service storage system with strategy learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    12. Flouri, Maria & Karakosta, Charikleia & Kladouchou, Charikleia & Psarras, John, 2015. "How does a natural gas supply interruption affect the EU gas security? A Monte Carlo simulation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 785-796.
    13. Shin, Jeongmin & Nam, Solji & Jeong, Jaeho & Shin, Jungwoo, 2024. "Economic evaluation of willingness to pay for natural gas supply reliability in Korea," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    14. Istemi Berk & Simon Schulte, 2017. "Turkey's Role in Natural Gas - Becoming a Transit Country?," EWI Working Papers 2017-1, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    15. Long Zhang & Wuliyasu Bai, 2020. "Risk Assessment of China’s Natural Gas Importation: A Supply Chain Perspective," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(3), pages 21582440209, July.
    16. Zhang, Dong & Li, Yueyi & Su, Xinyue & Ding, Yong & An, Zhoujian & Du, Xiaoze, 2026. "Solar-integrated trans-critical compressed CO2 energy storage system: A key solution for long-duration energy storage application," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    17. Agrell, Per J. & Dehaybe, Henri & Rodriguez, Manuel Herrera, 2025. "Balancing supply security and decarbonization: Optimizing Germany’s LNG port infrastructure under the European Green Deal," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    18. Zhaoyang Kong & Xiucheng Dong & Zhongbing Zhou, 2015. "Seasonal Imbalances in Natural Gas Imports in Major Northeast Asian Countries: Variations, Reasons, Outlooks and Countermeasures," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-22, February.
    19. Lochner, Stefan & Dieckhöner, Caroline, 2012. "Civil unrest in North Africa—Risks for natural gas supply?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 167-175.
    20. Zhou, Youcheng & Li, Bingchen & Zhao, Mengqi, 2025. "Asymmetric association between supply chain bottlenecks and consumer energy prices: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:328:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225022856. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.