Achieving China's ‘double carbon goals’, an analysis of the potential and cost of carbon capture in the resource-based area: Northwestern China

China has committed to achieving carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS) has great potential to help China achieve Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) commitments. In this regard, understanding the role of CCUS in Northwestern regions in China characterized by resource-based industries and high greenhouse gas emissions, is key to support China's low carbon transition. Therefore, taking Northwestern China as an example, we applied the Stochastic Effects of Population, Affluence and Technology Regression (STRIPAT) model, Bias-corrected Least Squares Dummy Variable (LSDVC) method, and scenario analyses to reveal the potential and costs of carbon mitigation(PCCM) for the CCUS. The results show that the current detected geologic carbon sequestration capacity is estimated to be about 762.48 GT, which meets the carbon mitigation needs of CCUS under different scenarios in the Northwestern China. And the potential and cost of carbon mitigation (PCCM) of CCUS vary greatly in different scenarios in 2030. The PCCM of CCUS in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is much higher than those other provinces in Northwestern China. This study provides a convincing evidence for the Northwestern local governments to prioritize CCUS technology under ‘double carbon goals’ in China.