IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v278y2023ipbs0360544223013658.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Electricity scenarios for Hungary: Possible role of wind and solar resources in the energy transition

Author

Listed:
  • Campos, José
  • Csontos, Csaba
  • Munkácsy, Béla

Abstract

The paper examines the compatibility of wind and solar energy resources with projections of future electricity demand in Hungary. For such, we model the national electricity system and estimate surplus generation. The model makes use of hourly distributions of electricity demand and power generation. Simulations for the year 2033 (last scenario year) suggest that 46–47% of the projected electricity consumption can be supplied by wind turbines and solar PV technology with a surplus of less than 5% of yearly consumption. A suitable capacity ratio of wind to solar PV and the management of electric vehicle charging may reduce surplus electricity. It is shown by our EnergyPLAN model that the solar PV capacity should be 1.1 times the wind power capacity which is a huge contrast to the current situation where solar PV is almost 10 times the wind power capacity in Hungary.

Suggested Citation

  • Campos, José & Csontos, Csaba & Munkácsy, Béla, 2023. "Electricity scenarios for Hungary: Possible role of wind and solar resources in the energy transition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:278:y:2023:i:pb:s0360544223013658
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2023.127971
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544223013658
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2023.127971?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Soha, Tamás & Munkácsy, Béla & Harmat, Ádám & Csontos, Csaba & Horváth, Gergely & Tamás, László & Csüllög, Gábor & Daróczi, Henriett & Sáfián, Fanni & Szabó, Mária, 2017. "GIS-based assessment of the opportunities for small-scale pumped hydro energy storage in middle-mountain areas focusing on artificial landscape features," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 1363-1373.
    2. Chang, Miguel & Lund, Henrik & Thellufsen, Jakob Zinck & Østergaard, Poul Alberg, 2023. "Perspectives on purpose-driven coupling of energy system models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    3. Papaefthymiou, Georgios & Haesen, Edwin & Sach, Thobias, 2018. "Power System Flexibility Tracker: Indicators to track flexibility progress towards high-RES systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 1026-1035.
    4. Kiss, Viktor Miklós & Hetesi, Zsolt & Kiss, Tibor, 2016. "Issues and solutions relating to Hungary's electricity system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 329-340.
    5. Gils, Hans Christian, 2014. "Assessment of the theoretical demand response potential in Europe," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-18.
    6. Lund, Henrik & Kempton, Willett, 2008. "Integration of renewable energy into the transport and electricity sectors through V2G," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3578-3587, September.
    7. Heide, Dominik & von Bremen, Lueder & Greiner, Martin & Hoffmann, Clemens & Speckmann, Markus & Bofinger, Stefan, 2010. "Seasonal optimal mix of wind and solar power in a future, highly renewable Europe," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2483-2489.
    8. Lund, Henrik, 2018. "Renewable heating strategies and their consequences for storage and grid infrastructures comparing a smart grid to a smart energy systems approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 94-102.
    9. Krarti, Moncef & Aldubyan, Mohammad, 2021. "Review analysis of COVID-19 impact on electricity demand for residential buildings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    10. Weitemeyer, Stefan & Kleinhans, David & Vogt, Thomas & Agert, Carsten, 2015. "Integration of Renewable Energy Sources in future power systems: The role of storage," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 14-20.
    11. Suganthi, L. & Samuel, Anand A., 2012. "Energy models for demand forecasting—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1223-1240.
    12. Szinai, Julia K. & Sheppard, Colin J.R. & Abhyankar, Nikit & Gopal, Anand R., 2020. "Reduced grid operating costs and renewable energy curtailment with electric vehicle charge management," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    13. Becker, S. & Rodriguez, R.A. & Andresen, G.B. & Schramm, S. & Greiner, M., 2014. "Transmission grid extensions during the build-up of a fully renewable pan-European electricity supply," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 404-418.
    14. Andresen, Gorm B. & Rodriguez, Rolando A. & Becker, Sarah & Greiner, Martin, 2014. "The potential for arbitrage of wind and solar surplus power in Denmark," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 49-58.
    15. Philip Tafarte & Marcus Eichhorn & Daniela Thrän, 2019. "Capacity Expansion Pathways for a Wind and Solar Based Power Supply and the Impact of Advanced Technology—A Case Study for Germany," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-23, January.
    16. Palmborg, Christer, 1986. "Social habits and energy consumption in single-family homes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 11(7), pages 643-650.
    17. Østergaard, P.A. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Sorknæs, P. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2022. "Review and validation of EnergyPLAN," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    18. Jacobson, Mark Z. & Delucchi, Mark A. & Cameron, Mary A. & Mathiesen, Brian V., 2018. "Matching demand with supply at low cost in 139 countries among 20 world regions with 100% intermittent wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) for all purposes," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 236-248.
    19. Kirkerud, J.G. & Nagel, N.O. & Bolkesjø, T.F., 2021. "The role of demand response in the future renewable northern European energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    20. Schill, Wolf-Peter, 2014. "Residual Load, Renewable Surplus Generation and Storage Requirements in Germany," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 73, pages 65-79.
    21. Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2009. "Energy system analysis of 100% renewable energy systems—The case of Denmark in years 2030 and 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 524-531.
    22. Ćosić, Boris & Krajačić, Goran & Duić, Neven, 2012. "A 100% renewable energy system in the year 2050: The case of Macedonia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 80-87.
    23. Cherp, Aleh & Vinichenko, Vadim & Jewell, Jessica & Suzuki, Masahiro & Antal, Miklós, 2017. "Comparing electricity transitions: A historical analysis of nuclear, wind and solar power in Germany and Japan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 612-628.
    24. Lund, H. & Münster, E., 2003. "Management of surplus electricity-production from a fluctuating renewable-energy source," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(1-3), pages 65-74, September.
    25. Kiwan, Suhil & Al-Gharibeh, Elyasa, 2020. "Jordan toward a 100% renewable electricity system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(P1), pages 423-436.
    26. Sadri, A. & Ardehali, M.M. & Amirnekooei, K., 2014. "General procedure for long-term energy-environmental planning for transportation sector of developing countries with limited data based on LEAP (long-range energy alternative planning) and EnergyPLAN," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 831-843.
    27. Zappa, William & van den Broek, Machteld, 2018. "Analysing the potential of integrating wind and solar power in Europe using spatial optimisation under various scenarios," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 1192-1216.
    28. Radics, Kornélia & Bartholy, Judit, 2008. "Estimating and modelling the wind resource of Hungary," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 874-882, April.
    29. Razmjoo, Armin & Mirjalili, Seyedali & Aliehyaei, Mehdi & Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Ahmadi, Abolfazl & Majidi Nezhad, Meysam, 2022. "Development of smart energy systems for communities: technologies, policies and applications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    30. Lund, Henrik & Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Connolly, David & Mathiesen, Brian Vad, 2017. "Smart energy and smart energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 556-565.
    31. Jacobson, Mark Z. & Delucchi, Mark A., 2011. "Providing all global energy with wind, water, and solar power, Part I: Technologies, energy resources, quantities and areas of infrastructure, and materials," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1154-1169, March.
    32. Lund, Henrik & Werner, Sven & Wiltshire, Robin & Svendsen, Svend & Thorsen, Jan Eric & Hvelplund, Frede & Mathiesen, Brian Vad, 2014. "4th Generation District Heating (4GDH)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-11.
    33. Carfora, Alfonso & Pansini, Rosaria Vega & Scandurra, Giuseppe, 2022. "Energy dependence, renewable energy generation and import demand: Are EU countries resilient?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 1262-1274.
    34. Balasubramanian, S. & Balachandra, P., 2021. "Effectiveness of demand response in achieving supply-demand matching in a renewables dominated electricity system: A modelling approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    35. Jochen Markard, 2018. "The next phase of the energy transition and its implications for research and policy," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(8), pages 628-633, August.
    36. Heide, Dominik & Greiner, Martin & von Bremen, Lüder & Hoffmann, Clemens, 2011. "Reduced storage and balancing needs in a fully renewable European power system with excess wind and solar power generation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2515-2523.
    37. Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Andersen, Anders N. & Sorknæs, Peter, 2022. "The business-economic energy system modelling tool energyPRO," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    38. Zell-Ziegler, Carina & Thema, Johannes & Best, Benjamin & Wiese, Frauke & Lage, Jonas & Schmidt, Annika & Toulouse, Edouard & Stagl, Sigrid, 2021. "Enough? The role of sufficiency in European energy and climate plans," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    39. Baibhaw Kumar & Gábor Szepesi & Zsolt Čonka & Michal Kolcun & Zsolt Péter & László Berényi & Zoltán Szamosi, 2021. "Trendline Assessment of Solar Energy Potential in Hungary and Current Scenario of Renewable Energy in the Visegrád Countries for Future Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-16, May.
    40. Alessia Arteconi & Fabio Polonara, 2018. "Assessing the Demand Side Management Potential and the Energy Flexibility of Heat Pumps in Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-19, July.
    41. Mirakyan, Atom & De Guio, Roland, 2015. "Modelling and uncertainties in integrated energy planning," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 62-69.
    42. Dranka, Géremi Gilson & Ferreira, Paula, 2020. "Load flexibility potential across residential, commercial and industrial sectors in Brazil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    43. Olkkonen, Ville & Rinne, Samuli & Hast, Aira & Syri, Sanna, 2017. "Benefits of DSM measures in the future Finnish energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 729-738.
    44. Tafarte, Philip & Das, Subhashree & Eichhorn, Marcus & Thrän, Daniela, 2014. "Small adaptations, big impacts: Options for an optimized mix of variable renewable energy sources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 80-92.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Østergaard, P.A. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Sorknæs, P. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2022. "Review and validation of EnergyPLAN," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    2. Hansen, Kenneth & Breyer, Christian & Lund, Henrik, 2019. "Status and perspectives on 100% renewable energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 471-480.
    3. Ashfaq, Asad & Kamali, Zulqarnain Haider & Agha, Mujtaba Hassan & Arshid, Hirra, 2017. "Heat coupling of the pan-European vs. regional electrical grid with excess renewable energy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 363-377.
    4. Blanco, Herib & Faaij, André, 2018. "A review at the role of storage in energy systems with a focus on Power to Gas and long-term storage," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1049-1086.
    5. Engeland, Kolbjørn & Borga, Marco & Creutin, Jean-Dominique & François, Baptiste & Ramos, Maria-Helena & Vidal, Jean-Philippe, 2017. "Space-time variability of climate variables and intermittent renewable electricity production – A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 600-617.
    6. Alexander Kies & Bruno U. Schyska & Lueder Von Bremen, 2016. "The Demand Side Management Potential to Balance a Highly Renewable European Power System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-14, November.
    7. Weitemeyer, Stefan & Kleinhans, David & Vogt, Thomas & Agert, Carsten, 2015. "Integration of Renewable Energy Sources in future power systems: The role of storage," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 14-20.
    8. Ashfaq, Asad & Ianakiev, Anton, 2018. "Cost-minimised design of a highly renewable heating network for fossil-free future," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 613-626.
    9. Md. Nasimul Islam Maruf, 2019. "Sector Coupling in the North Sea Region—A Review on the Energy System Modelling Perspective," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-35, November.
    10. Fridgen, Gilbert & Keller, Robert & Körner, Marc-Fabian & Schöpf, Michael, 2020. "A holistic view on sector coupling," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    11. Child, Michael & Kemfert, Claudia & Bogdanov, Dmitrii & Breyer, Christian, 2019. "Flexible electricity generation, grid exchange and storage for the transition to a 100% renewable energy system in Europe," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 139, pages 80-101.
    12. Philip Tafarte & Marcus Eichhorn & Daniela Thrän, 2019. "Capacity Expansion Pathways for a Wind and Solar Based Power Supply and the Impact of Advanced Technology—A Case Study for Germany," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-23, January.
    13. Chattopadhyay, Kabitri & Kies, Alexander & Lorenz, Elke & von Bremen, Lüder & Heinemann, Detlev, 2017. "The impact of different PV module configurations on storage and additional balancing needs for a fully renewable European power system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 176-189.
    14. Zerrahn, Alexander & Schill, Wolf-Peter, 2017. "Long-run power storage requirements for high shares of renewables: review and a new model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1518-1534.
    15. Diesendorf, Mark & Elliston, Ben, 2018. "The feasibility of 100% renewable electricity systems: A response to critics," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 318-330.
    16. Pleßmann, Guido & Blechinger, Philipp, 2017. "Outlook on South-East European power system until 2050: Least-cost decarbonization pathway meeting EU mitigation targets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 1041-1053.
    17. Lund, Henrik & Thellufsen, Jakob Zinck & Sorknæs, Peter & Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Chang, Miguel & Madsen, Poul Thøis & Kany, Mikkel Strunge & Skov, Iva Ridjan, 2022. "Smart energy Denmark. A consistent and detailed strategy for a fully decarbonized society," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    18. Maruf, Md. Nasimul Islam, 2021. "Open model-based analysis of a 100% renewable and sector-coupled energy system–The case of Germany in 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    19. Mathiesen, B.V. & Lund, H. & Connolly, D. & Wenzel, H. & Østergaard, P.A. & Möller, B. & Nielsen, S. & Ridjan, I. & Karnøe, P. & Sperling, K. & Hvelplund, F.K., 2015. "Smart Energy Systems for coherent 100% renewable energy and transport solutions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 139-154.
    20. Connolly, D. & Lund, H. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2016. "Smart Energy Europe: The technical and economic impact of one potential 100% renewable energy scenario for the European Union," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1634-1653.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:278:y:2023:i:pb:s0360544223013658. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.